Although growth in the U.S. continues at a reasonable rate, there are undeniable signs of a more global slowdown, especially in China. Even though we are doing reasonably well, the slowdown in the rest of the world does affect us.

One of the ideas I play with occasionally is that of long-term social cycles. Strauss and Howe’s book The Fourth Turning is a good example of how demographic cycles can alter society; it’s also a recommended read.

It was almost two years ago that I wrote “Here we go again” about the pending government shutdown. Well, here we go again—again—as a shutdown looks increasingly likely.

Last week was a busy one, with the release of important data for business and consumers, two macro reports, and the Fed’s decision on raising interest rates. Generally, the economic news in this Monday update is reasonably good and nothing to indicate worry.

I was pretty much right on my take that the Federal Reserve would choose not to raise rates yesterday. The U.S. economy is doing well, according to the statement, but rates will remain at zero due to worries about financial markets and the rest of the world. Waiting a bit longer has little downside compared with the risks of acting now—or so the Fed apparently believes.

One of my favorite Sherlock Holmes stories centers around something that did not happen: a dog that did not bark when he should have. I was thinking about that story last night during the Republican presidential debates.

It wasn’t just the debates that recalled the story to me, but also how they were reported—lots of words on how Trump and Fiorina interacted; lots of words on how Bush played off Trump’s “low energy” comments. There was essentially nothing about the economy. Why not?

I was discussing the Federal Reserve with one of my colleagues the other day, who expressed the opinion that everyone shows the Fed too much deference. “People think they know exactly what they are doing!” he exclaimed.

On the contrary.

The big news this week is the Federal Reserve’s rate-setting meeting tomorrow and Thursday. This is one of eight meetings held each year, approximately every six weeks. The remaining ones in 2015 are in October and December.

The reason this matters is because, once again, the Fed has to decide whether to start raising rates or not.

Last week was light on economic data, but it brought two important releases: one very good and one very bad.

There’s an undeniable focus on the U.S. in my research and writing. In part, of course, this is sheer parochialism—you write what you know and what your readers seem to be most interested in. But my focus is also driven by a conviction that the U.S. is still the most influential economic and political actor in the world. I have stood by this belief for the past couple of decades and see no reason to change now.

The reason I bring this up is that we are starting to see the beginnings of a new cycle.