The Independent Market Observer

Monday Update: Consumers Stay Strong

October 3, 2016

Last week’s economic reports showed a range of data, mainly focused on the consumer. Consumer news was largely good, but business and industry continued to disappoint, although by less than expected. Overall, based on last week’s data, the economy seems to keep creeping slowly forward, showing little sign of either the acceleration or slowdown that many have been predicting.

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Outlook for October and the Fourth Quarter

September 30, 2016

Yesterday, I laid out some of the big-picture constraints I see impacting the economy and the markets over the next year or two. Today, let’s take a look at what we can reasonably expect over the next month and for the rest of the year.

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Looking Ahead: 4 Big-Picture Themes

September 29, 2016

Writing my fourth-quarter preview of the economy and markets, which I plan to share with you tomorrow, I started thinking about several big ideas that are in play right now. Though these themes aren’t particularly actionable, they will frame our discussion of the near- to medium-term future.

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The Election and Market Worries

September 28, 2016

Should we, as investors, be worried about the presidential election?

After spending last week talking with financial advisors and their clients, and the past couple of days thinking about the debate, it seems that’s the question on pretty much everyone’s mind.

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What I Learned from the Presidential Debate

September 27, 2016

As expected, last night’s presidential debate was a slugfest. With both Trump and Clinton swinging freely at each other, and the moderator struggling to maintain control, it was interesting to see how the candidates chose to spend their time in front of the nation. We learned something, even if it wasn’t what we might have wanted to learn.

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Monday Update: Housing Steady, Fed Eyes December

September 26, 2016

Last week’s data focused on housing, including the National Association of Home Builders industry survey on Monday, housing starts on Tuesday, and sales of existing homes on Thursday. And of course, there was one very important event: the meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee.

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Presidential Debate Preview

September 23, 2016

After the Fed’s meeting, the next potentially market-moving event is the first debate between presidential candidates Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump. What can we expect from them on Monday?

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Fed Holds but Hints at December Hike

September 22, 2016

To no one’s surprise, the Fed decided not to raise rates yesterday. At the same time, however, it managed to hint about as strongly as it ever has that a rate increase is coming by the end of the year.

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Fundamentals Vs. Policy: It’s All About Growth

September 21, 2016

Yesterday we discussed the possibility of the Federal Reserve raising rates, and what that might mean for markets. Right now, markets are largely trading on what policymakers are doing—which is to say, interest rates—and as policy normalizes, so, too, should markets. In a normal market, shares will be priced off of earnings, rather than the latest comment from a Fed official.

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What Will the Fed Do?

September 20, 2016

Today is the start of the regular meeting of the Federal Reserve, which is tasked with managing the U.S. economy. The way it usually does this is by setting base interest rates, which the rest of the financial system keys off of. In recent years, the Fed has also used other methods—notably, buying bonds to reduce interest rates even further than the usual tools would allow.

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