The Independent Market Observer

What I Learned from the Presidential Debate

September 27, 2016

As expected, last night’s presidential debate was a slugfest. With both Trump and Clinton swinging freely at each other, and the moderator struggling to maintain control, it was interesting to see how the candidates chose to spend their time in front of the nation. We learned something, even if it wasn’t what we might have wanted to learn.

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Monday Update: Housing Steady, Fed Eyes December

September 26, 2016

Last week’s data focused on housing, including the National Association of Home Builders industry survey on Monday, housing starts on Tuesday, and sales of existing homes on Thursday. And of course, there was one very important event: the meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee.

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Presidential Debate Preview

September 23, 2016

After the Fed’s meeting, the next potentially market-moving event is the first debate between presidential candidates Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump. What can we expect from them on Monday?

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Fed Holds but Hints at December Hike

September 22, 2016

To no one’s surprise, the Fed decided not to raise rates yesterday. At the same time, however, it managed to hint about as strongly as it ever has that a rate increase is coming by the end of the year.

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Fundamentals Vs. Policy: It’s All About Growth

September 21, 2016

Yesterday we discussed the possibility of the Federal Reserve raising rates, and what that might mean for markets. Right now, markets are largely trading on what policymakers are doing—which is to say, interest rates—and as policy normalizes, so, too, should markets. In a normal market, shares will be priced off of earnings, rather than the latest comment from a Fed official.

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What Will the Fed Do?

September 20, 2016

Today is the start of the regular meeting of the Federal Reserve, which is tasked with managing the U.S. economy. The way it usually does this is by setting base interest rates, which the rest of the financial system keys off of. In recent years, the Fed has also used other methods—notably, buying bonds to reduce interest rates even further than the usual tools would allow.

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Monday Update: Economy Stays in Slow-Go, Not Go-Go

September 19, 2016

Last week gave us some clarity over whether the consumer will continue to lead economic growth and whether the manufacturing sector is as bad as the surveys suggest. Unfortunately, most of the data came in below expectations, showing that while the recovery continues, there is little evidence of any acceleration this quarter.

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The Time Horizon Problem

September 16, 2016

With market turbulence continuing today and questions pouring in, I am struck once again by the core issue we’re wrestling with here: the time horizon problem. Although we get meaningful results in the long term, we often feel compelled to react in the short term. 

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Boom Times Ahead (Did I Really Just Say That?)

September 15, 2016

I’ve been traveling this week, spending a day in Washington talking with the press and then speaking this morning at the Financial Planning Association conference. These trips are always useful in that I get a chance to bounce ideas off a lot of people in the real world. They can also be surprising. Not so much in the questions I’m asked—people are worried about the economy, worried about the markets, wondering what’s next—but in what comes out of my mouth when I answer them.

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Great News—Median Income Rises!

September 14, 2016

In one of the most encouraging headlines we’ve seen recently, the median U.S. household income rose in 2015 by the most since the mid-1960s.

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