The Independent Market Observer

S&P 500 Sector Changes: What Do They Mean for You?

September 18, 2018

Brad here. I don’t normally write too much about stock market inside baseball, but something is about to happen that will undoubtedly get a lot of press—and raise a lot of questions. Specifically, the companies that operate the S&P 500 are changing how they classify companies within the index. While these changes won’t actually alter anything about the index as a whole, or the companies within it, they could affect your investments. Because of that, I asked Brian McCormick from our Investment Research department to take a deep dive on what these changes are and what they might mean to you. Take it away, Brian!

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Monday Update: Inflation and Retail Sales Slow, Confidence Jumps

September 17, 2018

Last week’s data started with prices and whether inflation was picking up. This week’s economic data is all about housing.

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Market Downturn Ahead? Focus on the Data, Not the Date

September 14, 2018

You know the old saying: hindsight is 20/20. Apparently, foresight is as well because I have recently seen several prominent economists and investors calling for a recession in 2020. Repent, the end is near—but not all that near.

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The Great Financial Crisis: 10 Years Ago This Week

September 13, 2018

There has been much discussion recently about how the great financial crisis kicked off 10 years ago this week. We have retrospective interviews with participants, updates on how people fared during and after the crisis, and all of the typical media storytelling. It’s good stuff, and valuable for bringing a sense of perspective to the present moment. But it’s not all that useful in outlining what we should really be thinking of today in light of that history.

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Why Do You Need a Financial Advisor?

September 12, 2018

I was out with a friend the other night, and we got on the topic of what I do. He asked me a simple question: “why do I need a financial advisor?” He really did not get why anyone would want—let alone need—someone to help manage their financial lives.

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Monthly Market Risk Update: September 2018

September 11, 2018

Market risks come in three flavors: recession risk, economic shock risk, and risks within the market itself. So, what do these risks look like for September? Let’s take a closer look at the numbers.

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Monday Update: Business Confidence and Wage Growth Up

September 10, 2018

Last week was a short but very busy period for economic news, with looks at business sentiment, the trade balance, and, most important, the job market. This week’s data will start with prices and concerns over inflation.

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Economic Risk Factor Update: September 2018

September 7, 2018

Last month, I reported that business confidence had pulled back in July and that job growth had weakened. But the data bounced back in the most recent report, for August, suggesting that July was an outlier and the positive trends remain in place. While the question of whether the tariffs are finally starting to have an effect remains open, the current data indicates that, if so, the effect is minor.

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A Look Back at the Markets in August and Ahead to September

September 6, 2018

As we head into September, it’s a good time to take a look back at the markets in August, plus what we might expect in the month ahead.

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Monday Update (on Wednesday): Consumers and Manufacturers Confident

September 5, 2018

Last week was all about the consumer—what they are earning, what they are spending, and how confident they are. The week ahead is short but busy, with looks at business sentiment, the trade balance, and, most important, the job market.

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The information on this website is intended for informational/educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security or investment product. Please contact your financial professional for more information specific to your situation.

Certain sections of this commentary contain forward-looking statements that are based on our reasonable expectations, estimates, projections, and assumptions. Forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve certain risks and uncertainties, which are difficult to predict. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Diversification does not assure a profit or protect against loss in declining markets.

The S&P 500 Index is a broad-based measurement of changes in stock market conditions based on the average performance of 500 widely held common stocks. All indices are unmanaged and investors cannot invest directly in an index.

The MSCI EAFE (Europe, Australia, Far East) Index is a free float‐adjusted market capitalization index that is designed to measure the equity market performance of developed markets, excluding the U.S. and Canada. The MSCI EAFE Index consists of 21 developed market country indices.

One basis point (bp) is equal to 1/100th of 1 percent, or 0.01 percent.

The VIX (CBOE Volatility Index) measures the market’s expectation of 30-day volatility across a wide range of S&P 500 options.

The forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio divides the current share price of the index by its estimated future earnings.

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