The good news is that confidence was strong last month. Business sentiment bounced back in a big way, to a 21-year high. Consumer confidence rose even further, to an 18-year high. But the less good news is that job growth weakened on a monthly basis and interest rates rose. For both, though, there are other factors to consider. Job growth, for example, was revised up significantly for previous months, more than offsetting the monthly shortfall and keeping the annual growth figures healthy. Plus, rising interest rates widen the spread, reducing the chance of a yield curve inversion.

Last week was a busy one for economic data, with looks at business sentiment, the trade balance, and, most important, the job market. This week’s data digs into pricing and inflation, as well as gives us another look at consumer confidence.

Looking at the headlines, this has been a tough week for the U.S. economy. Interest rates spiked. Job growth dropped substantially. Oil prices are rising. So, we have three key economic and market risk indicators moving in the wrong direction, and markets dropped yesterday as a result. Is it time to panic?

Now that the third quarter of 2018 is over, we can look back and gain some perspective on what happened. It was a good three months, for the economy and for the markets—at least here in the U.S. Abroad, the news was much more mixed, particularly for emerging markets. Let’s take a look at some of the big ideas that drove the quarter.

There’s a lot going on in the world. As such, I thought today would be best served by taking a quick look at some of the financial news—and what the headlines mean in the bigger picture.

September was a bit of a mixed month: the S&P and Dow did well, while the Nasdaq pulled back on weakness in technology. But for the quarter as a whole, all three indices were up substantially. In the U.S., hiring remained strong, wage growth picked up, and consumer confidence reached an 18-year high. There is also a huge amount of confidence in the business world.

Last week was a busy one on the economic data front. It gave us a solid look at the consumer—both how they feel and what they are actually doing—as well as at business activity and some housing data. The week ahead will also be very busy. We’ll have looks at business sentiment across the board, the trade balance, and, most important, the job market.

The third quarter looks like another good one, at least here in the U.S. Despite ongoing turmoil—both political (with the Kavanaugh confirmation battle) and economic (with the rising trade conflict and tariffs)—markets rose steadily, reaching new highs. Markets abroad were not as positive, with emerging markets down and developed markets generally flat. On the whole, however, investors should be happy. Given the very real risks we faced at the start of the quarter, things could have been much worse. But will we be as lucky in the fourth quarter?

With politics heating up again—and the news from Washington driving scary headlines—I am getting more questions about what that turmoil could mean for the market. Will politics derail it? Will confidence be shaken? Should we be worried?

It was September 29, 2008, when the Dow Jones Industrial Average suffered what is now its second-largest point decline ever: it dropped 777.68 points during the day, after Congress’s rejection of the bank bailout bill. (Nearly 10 years later—on February 5, 2018—it closed down 1,175.21 points.) As bad as these declines were, however, they don't win the prize for the worst day ever in percentage terms. That would be October 19, 1987 (i.e., Black Monday), when the Dow lost 22.6 percent of its value. If we translate that into 2008 terms, the equivalent loss would be more than 2,500 points—or more than three times worse than the 2008 decline.