The Independent Market Observer

Market Thoughts for September 2018 [Video]

September 4, 2018

It was another good month here in the U.S., with the stock market up across the board. The economy, consumer confidence, and hiring all continued to grow. This growth is translating into corporate profits as well, with 80 percent of companies beating expectations.

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Have a Wonderful Labor Day Weekend!

August 31, 2018

As the days get shorter, the kids head back to school, and everyone turns their attention back to work after the summer, it seems appropriate to take a day to celebrate everyone who works. It seems even more appropriate to have that celebration by taking a day off to go to the beach, camp, or do whatever it is you enjoy—spending some quality time with family and friends.

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Does a Busy Summer in the Economic News Mean a Busy Fall?

August 30, 2018

As we approach the end of summer (I know, not technically), it seems like it never really happened. During most summers, a lack of economic news reduces me to writing about lobster rolls. This summer, however, there was no shortage of things to write about.

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Appearance on CNBC's Squawk Box, August 30, 2018 [Video]

August 30, 2018

Will the economy remain healthy in 2019, especially as the effects of the tax cuts start to fade? I talked about this and more earlier today on CNBC's Squawk Box.

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Iceland: Lessons in Political Economy

August 29, 2018

I just got back from 10 days in Iceland with my family. It was a wonderful trip. We saw and hiked waterfalls, glaciers, and volcano craters. We also went on a whale watch, where we got within yards of humpback whales and saw a very rare whale pod (not normally seen in Icelandic waters). As a family, we had a great time—highly recommend!

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Why Is the Market Hitting New Highs?

August 28, 2018

Maybe I should go away more often. When I left for vacation about two weeks ago, markets were pulling back on worries about Turkey. But after 10 days in Iceland (largely free of the news cycle), I come back to find markets hitting new highs. What is going on?

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Monday Update: Potential Slowdown in Housing

August 27, 2018

Today’s post is from Sam Millette, a fixed income analyst on Commonwealth’s Investment Management and Research team.

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The Effect of Tax Reform on Earnings per Share

August 24, 2018

Today’s post is from Brian McCormick, a manager on Commonwealth’s Investment Management and Research team.

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In Defense of Active Management

August 23, 2018

Today’s post is from Brian Price, Commonwealth’s senior vice president of investment management and research.

Much has been made of the recent proliferation of ETFs and the seemingly endless fee war taking place among the providers of low-cost index funds. As a self-described value guy, I love the fact that advisors have the choice of populating client portfolios with cheap beta through passive vehicles that, for the most part, are very tax efficient. In fact, cost and tax efficiency are the two main reasons why I am a firm believer that ETFs and index mutual funds should absolutely be part of the conversation when constructing portfolios.

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A Closer Look at the Conference Board Leading Economic Index

August 22, 2018

Today’s post is from Andrew Kitchings, a portfolio manager on Commonwealth’s Investment Management and Research team.

When trying to determine the direction of the economy and the market, many turn to the Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) because it is a composite of multiple indicators covering a broad spectrum of the economy. But the LEI is not overly useful in terms of forecasting future moves in the market. Instead, it can help concisely explain factors that the market is already analyzing and anticipating within the broader economy. Let’s take a closer look.

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The information on this website is intended for informational/educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security or investment product. Please contact your financial professional for more information specific to your situation.

Certain sections of this commentary contain forward-looking statements that are based on our reasonable expectations, estimates, projections, and assumptions. Forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve certain risks and uncertainties, which are difficult to predict. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Diversification does not assure a profit or protect against loss in declining markets.

The S&P 500 Index is a broad-based measurement of changes in stock market conditions based on the average performance of 500 widely held common stocks. All indices are unmanaged and investors cannot invest directly in an index.

The MSCI EAFE (Europe, Australia, Far East) Index is a free float‐adjusted market capitalization index that is designed to measure the equity market performance of developed markets, excluding the U.S. and Canada. The MSCI EAFE Index consists of 21 developed market country indices.

One basis point (bp) is equal to 1/100th of 1 percent, or 0.01 percent.

The VIX (CBOE Volatility Index) measures the market’s expectation of 30-day volatility across a wide range of S&P 500 options.

The forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio divides the current share price of the index by its estimated future earnings.

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