The big economic news last week was the inversion of the yield curve (i.e., when the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasuries dropped below the yields on shorter-term notes). This warrants—and will get, tomorrow—a more detailed discussion, but the short version of the story is that inversions can indeed signal trouble in the next six to eighteen months, but not right away. This is one more sign of weakness, and something to watch, but not a sign of imminent doom.

Recently, I’ve had a lot to say about debt. Back in December, at the height of the holiday season, I wrote about consumer debt and concluded that it really wasn’t a significant risk. That’s the good, relatively speaking. Government debt, which I discussed about a month ago, is a bigger risk. That is certainly a problem but not an immediate one. My best guess is that it becomes an immediate problem at some time in the next three to five years. That’s the bad. Now, it’s time to move on to the ugly—corporate debt. Here, the bad news comes in several flavors

Is there something the Fed sees that the average investor is missing? Earlier today, I appeared on Yahoo Finance Live: The Final Round to discuss the Fed’s impact on the market, what areas of the market I'm interested in right now, and more.

Yesterday’s Fed statement and press conference revealed a significant reversal from previous meetings. When Chair Powell told markets to “drop dead” a few months ago, the consensus was that the Fed was committed to normalizing policy despite the market risks. Since then, and especially with the most recent statement and conference, the Fed has done a full 180. Now, it is acting to support markets and the economy.

This will be a short post as I am on a plane headed back home from Florida. For me, this brief time in the air is a great opportunity to do something I try to do a couple of times a year here on the blog: focus on gratitude. Gratitude is one of the easiest and most effective ways to improve your life. Doing a daily gratitude practice, where I write down three things I am grateful for every day, has changed my life immeasurably for the better. Gratitude is not usually associated with air travel, I admit, but let’s see what we can do here.

With the market recovery continuing and after the decline at the end of last year, the market is once again moving close to new highs. The multibillion dollar question here is why that is—which hopefully will give us some guidance as to whether it will continue.

Last week was a busy one for economic data. But the week ahead will be slower, consisting of housing reports and the regular meeting of the Fed.

To follow up on my most recent Economic Risk Factor Update and Monthly Market Risk Update, as well as on my colleague Anu’s post on whether the Fed might resort to negative rates, I want to think about where the economy is headed. As I pointed out in the risk updates, the headline news is positive. All the economic indicators that I follow are outside the risk zones, market risk indicators have improved over the past month, and, in general, things are good. At least markets certainly think so. But as I look beyond the headline data, there is a strong case to be made that the current good conditions are much more fragile than they seem.

Brad here. With the Fed widely perceived as having hit pause on rate increases, with the European Central Bank launching stimulus again, and with rates declining around the world (back into negative territory, in many cases), it is time to start thinking about what the Fed might do in the next recession. Anu Gaggar of our Research department put some relevant ideas together that we should be considering as we contemplate the next couple of years. Thanks, Anu!

Market risks come in three flavors: recession risk, economic shock risk, and risks within the market itself. So, what do these risks look like for March? Let’s take a closer look at the numbers.