The Independent Market Observer

Jobs Report Preview: Higher Stakes Than Usual

April 4, 2019

The jobs report (formally the employment report) is always important. In fact, there is no single more important economic fact than how the labor market is doing. This report hits all of the issues: job creation, unemployment, wage growth, and labor demand.

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What the Brexit Endgame Means for Your Investments

April 3, 2019

I have pretty much been ignoring Brexit over the past several weeks, apart from noting it as a risk factor. The reason was that there was no way to predict what could happen—and there were so many options that trying to analyze any one of them was, in the end, pointless.

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Appearance on CNN International: Quest Means Business, April 02, 2019 [Video]

April 2, 2019

What is the inversion of the yield curve really telling us? I discussed this and more on CNN International’s Quest Means Business today.

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Market Thoughts for April 2019 [Video]

April 2, 2019

March was another great month for the financial markets, with U.S., emerging, and developed markets all up. But this strength was a bit strange, considering the weakening seen in the fundamentals. Here in the U.S., both consumer and business confidence took a hit, the yield curve inversion caused many to worry about a pending recession, and analysts lowered their expectations regarding corporate earnings.

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Monday Update: Weak Data Continues, But Trade Deficit Improves

April 1, 2019

Last week was a busy one for economic news, including looks at housing, trade, confidence, and consumer income and spending. This week is also full and should provide further insight on whether the recent spate of weak data is likely to continue.

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Main Street Vs. Wall Street

March 29, 2019

I was thinking again about the interesting times post. I want to give another slant on it that might help people get through the interesting times that are likely ahead: to separate our Wall Street thinking from our Main Street thinking. If we keep our minds firmly on Main Street, we can ride out quite a bit of news without getting derailed. It is when we start listening to Wall Street that we can get into trouble. This may seem a bit odd, coming from me. I’m a Wall Street creature, right?

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What Does Q1 Tell Us About the Rest of 2019?

March 28, 2019

As we move to the close of the first quarter, we now have some data to think about what the rest of 2019 will hold. Let’s take a look at what we can reasonably conclude.

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How to Think About Investing in Interesting Times

March 27, 2019

There is supposedly an old Chinese curse that states, “May you live in interesting times.” We certainly have been doing just that—and times look likely to get even more interesting going forward. But how do we think about investing (and living) in interesting times?

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Yield Curve Inversion: Evaluating the Risk

March 26, 2019

"More than any other time in history, mankind faces a crossroads. One path leads to despair and utter hopelessness. The other, to total extinction. Let us pray we have the wisdom to choose correctly." — Woody Allen

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Appearance on Yahoo Finance Live: On the Move, March 25, 2019 [Video]

March 25, 2019

Do I think consumer confidence is a key economic statistic? I discussed this, the yield curve, and more today on Yahoo Finance's On the Move.

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Certain sections of this commentary contain forward-looking statements that are based on our reasonable expectations, estimates, projections, and assumptions. Forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve certain risks and uncertainties, which are difficult to predict. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Diversification does not assure a profit or protect against loss in declining markets.

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