April 5, 2019
The other day, we talked a bit about what the first quarter of 2019 could tell us about the rest of the year, but it provided only a high-level look. To help us understand what is going on as we approach the second quarter, today I want to dig deeper to evaluate what happened and why.
April 4, 2019
The jobs report (formally the employment report) is always important. In fact, there is no single more important economic fact than how the labor market is doing. This report hits all of the issues: job creation, unemployment, wage growth, and labor demand.
April 3, 2019
I have pretty much been ignoring Brexit over the past several weeks, apart from noting it as a risk factor. The reason was that there was no way to predict what could happen—and there were so many options that trying to analyze any one of them was, in the end, pointless.
What is the inversion of the yield curve really telling us? I discussed this and more on CNN International’s Quest Means Business today.
April 2, 2019
March was another great month for the financial markets, with U.S., emerging, and developed markets all up. But this strength was a bit strange, considering the weakening seen in the fundamentals. Here in the U.S., both consumer and business confidence took a hit, the yield curve inversion caused many to worry about a pending recession, and analysts lowered their expectations regarding corporate earnings.
Last week was a busy one for economic news, including looks at housing, trade, confidence, and consumer income and spending. This week is also full and should provide further insight on whether the recent spate of weak data is likely to continue.
March 29, 2019
I was thinking again about the interesting times post. I want to give another slant on it that might help people get through the interesting times that are likely ahead: to separate our Wall Street thinking from our Main Street thinking. If we keep our minds firmly on Main Street, we can ride out quite a bit of news without getting derailed. It is when we start listening to Wall Street that we can get into trouble. This may seem a bit odd, coming from me. I’m a Wall Street creature, right?
March 28, 2019
As we move to the close of the first quarter, we now have some data to think about what the rest of 2019 will hold. Let’s take a look at what we can reasonably conclude.
March 27, 2019
There is supposedly an old Chinese curse that states, “May you live in interesting times.” We certainly have been doing just that—and times look likely to get even more interesting going forward. But how do we think about investing (and living) in interesting times?
March 26, 2019
"More than any other time in history, mankind faces a crossroads. One path leads to despair and utter hopelessness. The other, to total extinction. Let us pray we have the wisdom to choose correctly." — Woody Allen
