Today, I'd like to discuss the coronavirus, including its implications for the economy and markets. On the pandemic front, this week was much the same as last week. Nationally, the number of new cases per day held at just above 70,000, and the daily spread rate has been below 2 percent per day for the past five days. These numbers are still too high, but they’re not getting worse. This is good news, as stabilization represents real progress.

The good news this week is that things are about the same as they were last week. The reason this is good news is that things had been getting worse. So, this stabilization represents progress. It also indicates that, in many states, outbreaks are being contained, as expected.

While it is still early days, with only 9 percent of S&P 500 companies reporting as of the end of last week, the initial earnings reports seem to show that things are still not good. According to FactSet, quarterly earnings are down, so far, by 44 percent. If this number holds, it would be the second-worst quarterly drop since the end of 2008 during the financial crisis. Scary news—but not unexpected.

Today, I'd like to provide an update on the coronavirus, including its effect on the economy and markets. On the medical front, it was another bad week. The viral outbreaks continued to get worse, with several health care systems getting close to capacity. So far, however, most of the damage remains localized. And with affected states starting to impose restrictive measures, we’ve started to move in the right direction, and the likelihood of another national shutdown remains small.

This week’s update is somewhat worse than last week’s. Medical risks are still rising. Outbreaks in several states (notably, Arizona, California, Florida, and Texas) continued to get worse, even as other states began showing faster outbreaks.

My colleague Sam Millette, senior investment research analyst on Commonwealth’s Investment Management and Research team, has helped me put together this month’s Market Risk Update. Thanks for the assist, Sam!

Markets continued to rise in June, as efforts to reopen state economies across the country continued throughout the month. Investors reacted to the continued reopening with optimism, driving the S&P 500 up 1.99 percent in June following a 4.76 percent increase in May. These positive results came despite some midmonth volatility created by concerns of rising national coronavirus case numbers. While the continued market rebound during the month was certainly welcome for investors, very real risks to markets still remain—and there are several key factors that matter when determining the overall risk level.

My colleague Sam Millette, senior investment research analyst on Commonwealth’s Investment Management and Research team, has helped me put together this month’s Economic Risk Factor Update. Thanks for the assist, Sam!

Today, I'd like to provide an update on the coronavirus, including the economic and market implications. It was another bad week on the medical front. The viral outbreaks in several states continued to get worse, with some health care systems reaching capacity. Further, new cases at the national level broke 60,000 per day for the first time, and the daily spread rate reached 2 percent per day. Although the risks are rising, the affected states have started to impose the needed restrictive measures, and the public has begun to modify its behavior. As such, we can reasonably expect these outbreaks to peak and then decline in the next couple of weeks.

This week’s coronavirus update is pretty much the same as last week’s. The medical risks are still rising. Outbreaks in several states (notably, Arizona, California, Florida, and Texas) have continued to get worse. All have shown significant spikes in cases in recent days, and health care capacity is now a concern in some cities. Further, multiple other states are also seeing expanded case growth, although not yet at the levels of those four. At the national level, as of July 9, the number of new cases broke above 60,000 for the first time, and the daily spread rate is now at 2 percent per day. Similarly, even as the number of tests continues to rise, the positive rate is also increasing. The breadth and magnitude of the outbreaks continue to increase the risk at a national level.

The rest of 2020 will be all about the virus. We’re seeing localized outbreaks, but the necessary countermeasures are in place. So, we can reasonably expect the virus to remain under control. Despite the medical setbacks, millions of jobs have returned, along with consumer confidence and spending. The recovery remains on track and is likely to continue. And that's exactly what the markets are expecting.