The Independent Market Observer

Brad McMillan, CFA®, CFP®

Brad McMillan, CFA®, CFP®, is managing principal, wealth management, and chief investment officer at Commonwealth. As CIO, Brad chairs the investment committee and is a spokesperson for Commonwealth’s investment divisions. Brad received his BA from Dartmouth College, an MS from MIT, and an MS from Boston College. He has worked as a real estate developer, consultant, and lender; as an investment analyst, manager, and consultant; and as a start-up executive. His professional qualifications include designated membership in the Appraisal Institute, the CFA Institute, and the CAIA Association. He also is a CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER™ practitioner. Brad speaks around the country on investment issues and writes for industry publications, as well as for this blog.
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Recent Posts

China’s Role in the U.S. Market Correction

September 2, 2015

In thinking about the ongoing U.S. market correction, it occurred to me that, in one respect at least, it really is different this time. Historically, when we have experienced a correction—and, remember, we haven’t had one for years—it was either due to systemic factors or to events here in the U.S. That is not the case today.

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With Further Market Declines Likely, Keep the Long Run in Mind

September 1, 2015

August was the worst month for U.S. markets in more than three years, so say the headlines. I suspect it was also the worst month in at least that long for many international markets as well. And, as today’s numbers show us, we aren’t done yet. As I write this, U.S. markets are down about 2.5 percent, and European markets closed down around 3 percent.

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Monday Update: Back to Normal

August 31, 2015

Looking at today’s news, the lack of worrisome economic headlines is remarkable. Considering all that’s happened in the past couple of weeks—not to mention that markets are closing out their worst month in years—this seems to reinforce the idea that things here in the U.S. really are moving back to normal.

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China and the U.S. Stock Market

August 28, 2015

Now that things seem to have calmed down a bit, it’s a good time to discuss why the past week has been so turbulent. The usual explanations—the Chinese currency devaluation and stock market crash—are certainly valid, but there’s more to the story.

Let's take a closer look at the connection between the news from China and U.S. stock prices.

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Good Economic News May Not Curb Market Turbulence

August 27, 2015

If you’ve been reading my posts over the past week, you’ve probably noticed a key theme: despite ongoing market turbulence, U.S. economic fundamentals remain strong.

Today’s data underlined that point again. Economic growth for the second quarter was revised up substantially, from 2.3 percent to 3.7 percent—not only above expectations, at 3.2 percent, but beyond the higher end of the range of estimates.

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The Market’s Downside Risk: How Much Further Could It Fall?

August 26, 2015

After the decline at the end of the day yesterday, I’m getting more concerned about the next couple of weeks in U.S. markets. Although fundamentals remain strong, there appears to be a bigger break in confidence that could well lead to further downward movements.

Let’s take a look at where the market might be headed.

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Appearance on Varney & Co., August 24, 2015 [Video]

August 26, 2015

As the markets experienced significant declines on Monday after China sparked a global sell-off, I was on the phone with Stuart Varney, host of Fox Business Network's Varney & Co. Is the situation really as bad as it looks? Hear what I had to say. 

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Monday Update (on Tuesday): Economic News Holding Steady

August 25, 2015

Given everything that happened yesterday, I skipped my regular Monday Update to discuss the turmoil in the markets. Today, let’s return to the economic stats, as they shed more light on my theme from yesterday—that U.S. economic fundamentals remain solid.

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As Market Fears Grow, Stay Focused on the Long Term

August 24, 2015

One bad day doesn’t make a bear market. Two bad days, however, and the prospect of more to come, may well signal one.

Bear market is a scary term, and the past several days have certainly given investors cause for concern. Rather than spend time worrying, though, let’s try to understand what has happened and what it means for our long-term financial goals.

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Appearance on Mornings with Maria, August 20, 2015 [Video]

August 24, 2015

As the price of crude oil dropped precipitously last week, nearing another post-financial-crisis low, I joined Maria Bartiromo on the set of her Fox Business Network show, Mornings with Maria, to discuss whether now might be a good time to start investing in the energy sector and how to go about doing so. 

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