I was discussing the Federal Reserve with one of my colleagues the other day, who expressed the opinion that everyone shows the Fed too much deference. “People think they know exactly what they are doing!” he exclaimed.

On the contrary.

The big news this week is the Federal Reserve’s rate-setting meeting tomorrow and Thursday. This is one of eight meetings held each year, approximately every six weeks. The remaining ones in 2015 are in October and December.

The reason this matters is because, once again, the Fed has to decide whether to start raising rates or not.

Last week was light on economic data, but it brought two important releases: one very good and one very bad.

There’s an undeniable focus on the U.S. in my research and writing. In part, of course, this is sheer parochialism—you write what you know and what your readers seem to be most interested in. But my focus is also driven by a conviction that the U.S. is still the most influential economic and political actor in the world. I have stood by this belief for the past couple of decades and see no reason to change now.

The reason I bring this up is that we are starting to see the beginnings of a new cycle.

As the U.S. economy has been normalizing—even moving back to good times—politics has been what I can only call denormalizing. In one more back-to-the-future moment, I am now substantially more worried about political threats to the economy than I am about economic threats.

When markets drop, I always get calls from advisors and the media asking what the heck is going on. Volatility (at least when combined with a market decline) is often considered evidence that it’s time to worry—that something is broken. It makes sense; after all, if you’re losing money on your investments, something isn’t right. But, somehow, I don’t see the same reaction when there’s a market melt-up. No one called me yesterday to ask what was going on, anyway.

Maybe they should have.

Data last week was right in the middle of the fairway, to use a late-summer metaphor. We saw a weak print, a strong print, and a medium print, all of which, on balance, added up to a pretty good week for economic news, overall.

It seems appropriate to be talking about the August jobs report as we head into the Labor Day weekend. This report certainly has been a market mover so far today, but I’m not sure there’s much news here.  

Once again, it’s time for our monthly update on risk factors that have proven to be good indicators of economic trouble ahead.

There has been some minor weakening of trends from last month, but only at a level that appears reasonable and typical for the news we have had and for this stage of the cycle. Overall, the data hasn’t changed much.

In my latest Market Thoughts video, I review the recent, surprising declines in U.S. and international markets and what contributed to them. I also provide an update on U.S. economic performance, highlighting an increase in job growth and consumer spending.