This post originally appeared last spring and is part 2 of a series on what happens when interest rates start to rise.

This post originally appeared last spring. With a Federal Reserve rate increase largely expected to happen this week, I want to take a look at what happens when rates start to rise.

Although I identified consumer confidence as a yellow light in December’s economic risk factor update, last week’s data releases gave a largely encouraging take.

I shared this post in 2014, but it’s always worth another go.

As we close out the year and look ahead to a new beginning in 2016, I thought it would be fun to repost a couple of entertaining videos from EconStories that offer some surprisingly accurate lessons in economics. Let the rap battles begin! 

I shared this post earlier this year, and as we look ahead to a 2016 that could bring ongoing volatility, I think it’s a good reminder.

When we consider market returns, we often focus on average returns, assuming the downside will take care of itself. But I don’t think averages are the best way to express how portfolios may perform. In fact, I think this points to an even bigger problem: how we measure risk.

Feeling and living gratitude is one of the easiest and most effective ways to improve your life. Ever since listening to Shawn Achor speak at a Commonwealth conference several years ago, I have been writing down at least three things I am grateful for every day.

Last week was a busy one, with several important releases that provided a mixed bag of both support for a continued slowdown and a suggestion that growth remains solid despite that slowdown. Let’s take a closer look.

Last Friday, I was on set with TheStreet to discuss what’s ahead for the economy and markets with host Gregg Greenberg. From consumer income and spending growth, to a potential normalization in the energy sector, find out why I think 2016 will be a better year than many people currently expect.

Once again, it’s time for our monthly update on risk factors that have proven to be good indicators of economic trouble ahead. For the first time since I started this update, we now have a yellow light—in consumer confidence—along with some other signs of weakness.

Recently, I’ve been working on the 2016 outlook, reviewing all of the usual data that we highlight monthly, as well as developing a series of other projections on wages, income, spending, corporate profits, and so forth. Although the consumer remains healthy, one of the things that has caught my eye has been a surprising deterioration in a number of business-related components of the economy, and it has me thinking about what this could mean in terms of an economic slowdown.