What Does the Fed Rate Cut Tell Us?

September 19, 2019

Yesterday, the FOMC decided to reduce the target range for the federal funds rate from 2–2.25 percent to 1.75–2 percent. As the headlines put it, the Fed cut rates by one-quarter of a percent. The headline version is certainly pithier, but the first version is more accurate—and gives a better sense of what actually happened: the Fed did not lower rates (contrary to the headlines), but it did lower the target range for its own lending operations.

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The Fed Jumped into the Cash Markets: How Bad Is It?

September 18, 2019

Brad here. Today, we have a look at the Fed’s recent move into the cash markets from Nicholas Follett, manager of fixed income on our Investment Management and Research team. Enjoy!

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Oil Spikes on Saudi Attack, But What’s the Damage?

September 17, 2019

The big news over the weekend was the drone attack on the main oil processing facility in Saudi Arabia. Apparently, the attack significantly affected the nation’s ability to deliver oil, knocking production down by half or more according to some estimates (more than 4 million barrels per day). As I write this, no one knows when the damage will be repaired or when Saudi production will return to normal.

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Monday Update: Inflation Heats Up and New Tariffs Take Effect

September 16, 2019

Last week, we focused on inflation and the consumer, with the release of August’s reports on producer prices, consumer prices, retail sales, and consumer confidence. This week, we’ll see if home builder confidence remains steady and whether the Fed will cut rates.

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Markets Approaching New Highs Again: What’s Next?

September 13, 2019

As U.S. markets once again approach new highs—after all the drama and the three separate pullbacks last month—I think it makes sense to try to gain some perspective about what is really going on. Immediately after the markets hit new highs last time around, we had quite a bit of volatility. So, it’s reasonable to wonder what will happen next as we approach these highs once again.

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Do We Need Negative Interest Rates in the U.S.?

September 12, 2019

I am working on my talk for Commonwealth’s upcoming National Conference, all about interest rates in the new world. The tagline is going to be “Less Than Zero.” Yesterday, I got an endorsement (sort of) from the president, who tweeted that the Fed should lower rates to zero or even below. Clearly, I got the hot topic right this year!

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Appearance on CNBC’s Power Lunch, September 11, 2019 [Video]

September 11, 2019

Today I appeared on CNBC’s Power Lunch to discuss this year’s IPO market. Listen in to learn more.

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Upcoming Appearances

Are you attending the 2019 FPA Annual Conference in Minneapolis, Minnesota? Be sure to join my “Economic and Market Update” during the Educational Breakout Sessions on Friday, October 18, from 7:45 A.M. to 8:45 A.M. CT. To learn more, visit https://fpaannual.org/.

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Certain sections of this commentary contain forward-looking statements that are based on our reasonable expectations, estimates, projections, and assumptions. Forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve certain risks and uncertainties, which are difficult to predict. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Diversification does not assure a profit or protect against loss in declining markets.

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