The Independent Market Observer

Europe in the Next Five Years

June 17, 2015

Yesterday, I talked about several major trends that are poised to at least pause (and quite possibly reverse) over the next couple of decades. One major area we didn’t discuss is Europe, which is likely to see more change in the next 5 years than it has in the past 20.

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What Happens If Greece Falls Off the Debt Cliff?

June 12, 2015

Reading about the Greek debt crisis this morning, I think it’s high time to resurrect the once-ubiquitous “cliff” metaphor from the U.S. budget negotiations.

The faceoff between Greece and its creditors continues to intensify and is now worse than the confrontation between Republicans and Democrats ever was. There are very real and substantial divides between the two sides, and the parties involved are running out of room to agree to disagree.

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Do Rising Rates Mean Falling Stocks?

June 11, 2015

Yesterday, I saw an interesting doom-and-gloom piece on rising rates, which claimed that rate increases typically sink the stock market and that we could potentially expect a crash in the near future.

Theoretically, this isn’t crazy; higher rates should lead to lower stock prices. In practice, though, higher rates typically reflect a strengthening economy.

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Appearance on CNBC's Power Lunch, June 10, 2015 [Video]

June 11, 2015

Is it time to get defensive on U.S. stocks, or is there still room for the markets to move higher? That's what I discussed during an appearance yesterday on CNBC's Power Lunch program

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Greece and the Stock Market: Time for Concern?

June 9, 2015

It may be time to start watching the stock market more closely. Although I believe the general environment remains supportive, the uncertainty around the Greek bailout might be creating the conditions for a market pullback.

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A Walk Through Today’s Strong Jobs Report

June 5, 2015

As I wrote the other day, the economic recovery really all boils down to jobs. With multiple weak indicators across the board and a poor March jobs report, many wondered: was the recovery continuing, or were we in the first stages of another slowdown?

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Greece: Teenager with a Credit Card

June 4, 2015

As yet another deadline for Greece and the eurozone approaches, we once again find ourselves considering what a Greek default might mean for the U.S. and world economies. First, though, let’s take another look at what’s actually going on with Greece and Europe.

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U.S. Power and the South China Sea

June 3, 2015

I planned to write more about sources of economic growth today, but I’m out of the office without easy access to data, so we’ll postpone that conversation to tomorrow. Instead, let’s discuss the situation in the South China Sea.

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U.S. GDP and Slow Growth

May 29, 2015

As you may remember, the original estimate for first-quarter U.S. GDP growth was a none-too-exciting 0.2 percent. Today’s revision reduced that to a downright depressing decline of 0.7 percent.

In this light, the slow growth problem I mentioned yesterday sounds optimistic, right?

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Today’s Economic News: Expectations and Reality

May 26, 2015

I spent this morning reviewing today's economic news in preparation for a TV appearance. I didn't have much of a chance to focus on it in the interview, but fortunately we can discuss it here. The news wasn’t just good, but good in an interesting way.

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