The Independent Market Observer

Monday Update: Generally Good News Points to Continuing Growth

November 7, 2016

Last week’s wide-ranging data started to give us an idea of whether economic growth (and perhaps even faster growth) continues.

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Monday Update: Amid Disappointing Data, Economy Still Growing

October 31, 2016

Last week’s economic data was a mixed bag, focusing mostly on the consumer but also touching on business and the economy as a whole.

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Strong GDP Report: Treat or Trick?

October 28, 2016

This is the season of ghosts and goblins, scary monsters, and small children roaming around in packs to loot the neighborhood of candy. In other words, it’s very much like the typical investment environment, with everyone looking to get something sweet but nervous about what might leap out of the bushes.

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What Does the AT&T/Time Warner Merger Mean for the Market?

October 25, 2016

There have been a lot of headlines in the past couple of days about the proposed mega-merger between AT&T and Time Warner. In fact, I was on CNBC yesterday discussing it. At $85 billion, this would be the sixth-largest merger of all time, so it is indeed a big deal. Does it have any larger meaning, though?

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Appearance on CNBC's Power Lunch, October 24, 2016 [Video]

October 25, 2016

Do big deals signal a market peak? Yesterday afternoon, I was on CNBC’s Power Lunch offering thoughts on the market amid the recent AT&T and Time Warner merger. 

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Monday Update: Industry Does Better as Housing Slows

October 24, 2016

Last week’s reports covered a wide range of the economy.

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What It Would Take to Rig the U.S. Election

October 21, 2016

The headlines this week are all about Donald Trump’s refusal to accept his potential defeat in the U.S. presidential race. He has reserved the right to contest the results of the election, doubling down on his claims that the process is rigged. Although this is the first time the issue has arisen in the presidential forum, claims of data rigging have been quite common in recent years.

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Monday Update: The Consumer Is Back (Sort Of)

October 17, 2016

Last week’s reports remained modestly positive, although consumer demand showed signs of a slowdown.   

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What Does the Election Mean for Your Portfolio?

October 12, 2016

There’s no escaping coverage of the presidential election—what it means, whom to vote for, whom not to vote for. Many of us are deeply engaged in the process and passionately committed to one of the candidates.

At the same time, one of the most important personal consequences of the election will be its effect on our portfolios. Presidents come and go, but your retirement is on the horizon regardless of who’s elected.

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Monday Update: Business Sentiment Bounces Back

October 10, 2016

Last week’s economic reports showed a range of data, mainly focused on business. The news was surprisingly positive across the board, with business sentiment improving substantially while job growth continued at a more or less steady pace. Overall, based on last week’s data, the economy continues to move forward, with this month’s good news largely reversing the bad news from last month.

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The information on this website is intended for informational/educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security or investment product. Please contact your financial professional for more information specific to your situation.

Certain sections of this commentary contain forward-looking statements that are based on our reasonable expectations, estimates, projections, and assumptions. Forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve certain risks and uncertainties, which are difficult to predict. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Diversification does not assure a profit or protect against loss in declining markets.

The S&P 500 Index is a broad-based measurement of changes in stock market conditions based on the average performance of 500 widely held common stocks. All indices are unmanaged and investors cannot invest directly in an index.

The MSCI EAFE (Europe, Australia, Far East) Index is a free float‐adjusted market capitalization index that is designed to measure the equity market performance of developed markets, excluding the U.S. and Canada. The MSCI EAFE Index consists of 21 developed market country indices.

One basis point (bp) is equal to 1/100th of 1 percent, or 0.01 percent.

The VIX (CBOE Volatility Index) measures the market’s expectation of 30-day volatility across a wide range of S&P 500 options.

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