The Independent Market Observer

September Jobs Report Preview

October 6, 2016

Tomorrow, the Labor Department releases the jobs report—probably the most important economic report of them all. After all, jobs drive everything. As an indicator of business confidence, job growth is predictive; as the engine of consumer spending, job growth is determinative. We learn a lot about the economy from this report every month.

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Should We Be Worried About Deutsche Bank?

October 5, 2016

As I’ve mentioned, the European banking system is a key risk, and Deutsche Bank—one of the largest banks in Germany and Europe—is catching headlines over its troubles. There’s been a great deal of speculation about what this means for the U.S. and world economies and for stock markets. Some have even suggested this might be a “Lehman moment” that could trigger another financial crisis. I asked our international analyst, Anu Gaggar, to take a look and report back on what she found. — Brad

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What I Learned from the Presidential Debate

September 27, 2016

As expected, last night’s presidential debate was a slugfest. With both Trump and Clinton swinging freely at each other, and the moderator struggling to maintain control, it was interesting to see how the candidates chose to spend their time in front of the nation. We learned something, even if it wasn’t what we might have wanted to learn.

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Monday Update: Housing Steady, Fed Eyes December

September 26, 2016

Last week’s data focused on housing, including the National Association of Home Builders industry survey on Monday, housing starts on Tuesday, and sales of existing homes on Thursday. And of course, there was one very important event: the meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee.

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Presidential Debate Preview

September 23, 2016

After the Fed’s meeting, the next potentially market-moving event is the first debate between presidential candidates Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump. What can we expect from them on Monday?

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Fed Holds but Hints at December Hike

September 22, 2016

To no one’s surprise, the Fed decided not to raise rates yesterday. At the same time, however, it managed to hint about as strongly as it ever has that a rate increase is coming by the end of the year.

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What Will the Fed Do?

September 20, 2016

Today is the start of the regular meeting of the Federal Reserve, which is tasked with managing the U.S. economy. The way it usually does this is by setting base interest rates, which the rest of the financial system keys off of. In recent years, the Fed has also used other methods—notably, buying bonds to reduce interest rates even further than the usual tools would allow.

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Monday Update: Economy Stays in Slow-Go, Not Go-Go

September 19, 2016

Last week gave us some clarity over whether the consumer will continue to lead economic growth and whether the manufacturing sector is as bad as the surveys suggest. Unfortunately, most of the data came in below expectations, showing that while the recovery continues, there is little evidence of any acceleration this quarter.

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Great News—Median Income Rises!

September 14, 2016

In one of the most encouraging headlines we’ve seen recently, the median U.S. household income rose in 2015 by the most since the mid-1960s.

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September Volatility: What It Means (and Doesn’t Mean)

September 13, 2016

After months of relative calm in the financial markets, we’ve seen big bounces over the past several days, down and up and down again this morning. What’s going on?

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Certain sections of this commentary contain forward-looking statements that are based on our reasonable expectations, estimates, projections, and assumptions. Forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve certain risks and uncertainties, which are difficult to predict. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Diversification does not assure a profit or protect against loss in declining markets.

The S&P 500 Index is a broad-based measurement of changes in stock market conditions based on the average performance of 500 widely held common stocks. All indices are unmanaged and investors cannot invest directly in an index.

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The VIX (CBOE Volatility Index) measures the market’s expectation of 30-day volatility across a wide range of S&P 500 options.

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