The Independent Market Observer

Monday Update: Consumers Slightly Less Confident

November 13, 2017

Last week was a very slow one for economic news, although the week ahead will be much busier. So, let’s jump right in.

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Saudi Arabia and the Republican Tax Plan: Will the Markets React?

November 7, 2017

It has been a busy couple of days in the news. So, while I don’t ordinarily quote Lenin, his statement that “there are decades where nothing happens; and there are weeks when decades happen” is just too applicable to ignore. The events in Saudi Arabia and, to a lesser extent, in Washington are potentially changing the range of reasonable future outcomes—to a degree that markets are not fully discounting.

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Monday Update: Positive Data Trends Continue, Hurricane Effects Fade

November 6, 2017

Last week was a busy one on the data front, giving us a wide-ranging look at the economy. Overall, the news was good, with consumer and business confidence improving or holding steady, while the jobs report rebounded significantly. The big Federal Reserve news—the selection of Janet Yellen’s successor—was also well received.

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Monday Update: Surprisingly Good Data, Despite Hurricanes

October 30, 2017

Last week was a relatively slow one, but it still gave us a look at the economy as a whole. The data was surprisingly strong, especially in light of the hurricanes’ impact, and came in better than expected across the board. Despite some concerns about growth, this news was quite good and suggests some of those concerns may not play out.

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Monday Update: Despite Hurricanes, Growth Remains Solid

October 23, 2017

Last week gave us a broad look at the economy, including industrial production and housing. While the business news was generally positive, housing was more mixed—suggesting a potential slowdown in the next couple of quarters. It is clear that growth continues and is likely to keep going for some time. Still, and despite the disruptions from the hurricanes, there are signs that we are in the later part of the economic cycle and will need to keep an eye out for slowing growth.

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Monday Update: Strong Performance After the Storms

October 16, 2017

Today's post is from Sam Millette, a fixed income analyst on our Investment Management and Research team.

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Monday Update: Very Positive Data, Due in Part to Storms

October 9, 2017

Last week gave us a broad look at the economy, including business confidence surveys and the jobs report. The news came in surprisingly strong, at multiyear bests in many cases. This was, of course, positive and consistent with other data, but the magnitude of the improvements raises the question of how much the storms may have affected the results. That impact varies, but there is reason to believe that the improvements are real—although likely not as good as the numbers would suggest.

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Jobs Report: Weak Headline, Strong Details

October 6, 2017

Since I thought I had covered the most likely outcome of the jobs report in yesterday’s post, I had not planned on writing about it again this morning. Looking at the actual data, though, there are some worthwhile takeaways that deserve a closer look. So, here we are.

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What Should We Expect from This Month’s Jobs Report?

October 5, 2017

One of the most important economic reports—the jobs report—is coming out on Friday. This is always a big data release, in that jobs are the ultimate barometer of the economy. Companies don’t hire unless they are both confident and expanding, so the jobs report touches them. Consumers don’t spend unless they are working and making money, so it touches them. Inflation depends on how fast wages are growing, so it touches that, too. Basically, the jobs report sits right in the middle of everything that we as investors need to keep an eye on.

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Monday Update: Despite Hurricanes, Solid Economic Data

October 2, 2017

Last week gave us a broad look at the economy, including housing, consumer confidence, business investment, and personal income and spending. Some weakness was apparent, but this seems to be due in large part to hurricanes Harvey and Irma and may therefore be short lived. With the exception of new home development, where the market appears to have normalized as supply and demand are close to normal levels, the overall news was good. This week’s data is certainly worth watching but—given the storm effects—not worth giving excessive weight to.

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