As I mentioned yesterday, one of the key data points that will determine whether we get a recession sometime next year is whether job growth continues. Tomorrow, we get the November 2019 jobs report. This report is a big one—not only for the economic impact but also for the potential market impact on whether we will really see a Santa Claus rally.

November was a great month for U.S. markets, with the S&P 500 up by 3.63 percent, the Dow up by 4.11 percent, and the Nasdaq up by 4.64 percent. All three indices are now up by more than 20 percent for the year. As we celebrated Thanksgiving, we had a lot to be thankful for. The news abroad wasn’t as good. But it also wasn’t as bad as the headlines might have suggested, as developed markets were up by 1.13 percent and emerging markets were down by just 0.13 percent. Given the headlines, those results are also pretty good.

It has been proven that being grateful is one of the best ways to make your life better—to be both happier and more successful. Here on the blog, I try to focus on gratitude a couple of times a year. Of course, Thanksgiving is the perfect occasion to take a break and think about all the things we have to be grateful for.

This morning, I saw a commentary piece that pointed out we have had 12 record highs for the S&P 500 in the past month. A record is usually a big deal, and I often get calls to comment on what it all means. But I have to admit, I did not realize there had been that many in the past month. So, what does this series of highs mean, if anything?

Brad here. One of the hot topics in the past year or so has been marijuana investing. Stocks have soared—and crashed. So, how can we know what to do if we want to invest? Peter Roberto, an investment research analyst on Commonwealth’s Investment Management and Research team, went back to history for some guidance. This perspective is a great way to think about this problem, and many others. Over to you, Peter.

One of the consistent narratives that has been playing out in the investing world is the death of retail. With Amazon and other online retailers continuing to grow and take market share, the world of brick and mortar has been said to be dying a slow and largely well-deserved death. Sears is the poster child here, with the once dominant retailer collapsing. (In that case, however, Amazon doesn’t seem to be the primary cause.) Other retailers have also taken hit after hit, and their stock prices have generally trended down. This trend is seen as something new and different—and something to worry about. The death of retail!

Brad here. As a parent, one of the things I am struggling with is how to teach my son about money. Today, we have a terrific post from Brian Glazer, a Commonwealth investment consultant here at the home office, who is clearly doing a much better job at it than my wife and I are. I learned a lot, and I hope you will, too. Thanks, Brian!

Brad here. I have been writing about how demographics have become increasingly determinative of economic performance, especially around growth and interest rates. Today, Anu Gaggar, Commonwealth’s senior research analyst for international equities, puts these ideas into a historical and geographic context: what has happened in Japan—and what that might mean for the U.S. and for our investments. Over to you, Anu.

Over the past two days, we have looked at the signs that a recession is coming, going so far as trying to time it to the middle of next year. What we haven’t done is look at perhaps the most important question: how bad will the recession be when it hits? After all, the timing may not matter that much, but whether it’s going to be mild or severe certainly makes a difference.

Yesterday, I discussed how the recent un-inversion of the yield curve suggests a recession is likely in the next year. So, I thought I would extend the same analysis to the other three indicators we follow here on the blog. Looking at one indicator is valuable, but we really need to evaluate all four to see if they align with one another—or not.