After a great month like August, expectations and momentum are high, and you could reasonably expect to see another great month ahead. That scenario happens, and it is certainly what we are seeing in the first days of September. But taking a detailed look at last month’s results suggests some reasons for caution. Let’s start with where the returns came from.

There has been a great deal of commentary surrounding the change in how the Fed is going to manage inflation. As announced yesterday, the Fed will be using a “flexible form of average inflation targeting.” This means that rather than the prior objective—to keep inflation below 2 percent at all times—the Fed will now aim for an average inflation level of around 2 percent. Since inflation is well below 2 percent and has been for some time, markets are interpreting this announcement as the Fed will be willing to let inflation run hot (i.e., above 2 percent) for some time to restore the average. Cue the worries about hyperinflation.

The good news is that the second wave of infections has continued to come under control in the past two weeks. Case growth is down significantly from the peak, and the case growth rate has ticked back down below the lows seen in mid-June. Despite the higher case counts, the pandemic is once more under control. The control measures are working.

Tomorrow, I will give my usual pandemic update (spoiler alert: improvement continues). But today I’d like to focus on what is becoming increasingly clear: the stock market and, to a lesser extent, the economy have started to move past the pandemic. While it clearly isn’t over and will continue to have an effect on both, the headlines and market reactions have moved on.

It’s my first day back from vacation, and I’m thinking I should take time off more often. Not only did we get some great posts here from my colleagues (thank you, all!), but my absence apparently allowed markets to hit new all-time highs. With investors getting excited, many expect the run-up to continue, despite the fact that I am now, metaphorically, back in the office. Sentiment is increasingly positive, and the fear of missing out is becoming a powerful driver for nervous investors to get back in the market. But should they?

Brad here. Today we’ll get an update on the municipal bond market from Nick Follett, manager of fixed income on our Investment Management and Research team. Over to you, Nick.

Brad here. With so much unknown in our world, it seemed the perfect time to discuss how to position a portfolio for uncertainty. Today, Christ Stuart, a senior investment research analyst on our Investment Management and Research team, will do just that. Take it away, Chris.

Brad here. Today's post on the growing disparity we're seeing between growth and value stocks is brought to you by Peter Roberto, an investment research analyst on Commonwealth’s Investment Management and Research team. Take it away, Peter.

Brad here. Today’s post on the recent volatility of the U.S. dollar comes from Anu Gaggar, senior analyst on the Investment Management and Research team here at Commonwealth. Take it away, Anu.

Not too long ago, Brad wrote that the dollar is not going away. While that may be true, we are seeing considerable volatility in its value. What’s going on—and what does it mean for your investments? Of course, there is no crystal ball to answer such questions, but we can certainly take a deeper dive to better understand what is happening and how to deal with it.

The good news is that the second wave of infections looks to have peaked and turned back down in the past two weeks. Case growth is down significantly from the peak, and the case growth rate has ticked back down to the lows seen in mid-June. Two weeks ago, we discussed the peak of the second wave, and this decline is the next step. The data indicates that, in most states, outbreaks are being contained.