This week, I'm at Commonwealth’s Chairman’s Retreat in Miami, a place that quickly reminds you that the world is much bigger than the U.S. As it happens, my talk here will focus on the rest of the world—and how, exactly, the U.S. fits into it.

This post previously appeared in mid-2013, but given the Fed’s ongoing monetary policies over the last few years, and the recent volatility in the currency markets, it makes sense to revisit today.

In my role as chief investment officer at an independent broker/dealer–RIA, I often receive questions from advisors, their clients, and the media about the potential for a dollar collapse and, more important, what currency would replace the dollar in that (in my belief) unlikely event.

As 2014 draws to a close, it's time for my traditional Christmas post. Best wishes to you and yours this holiday.

I have always loved Christmas. But as I grew older, I seemed to lose much of the spirit. Now that I have a six-year-old son—who is wrestling with the stress of being good under the eye of the “Elf on the Shelf,” guessing about presents under the tree, and baking cookies with his mom—I find myself recovering much of the Christmas spirit I had lost.

The holidays are always a good time to reflect on the many things we have to be grateful for. As we settle in for a family celebration, here’s my list.

As I’ve written before, the doomsayers have been pretty comprehensively wrong, at least in terms of their dire predictions for the U.S. While they may yet be right elsewhere in the world, I thought we’d do a premortem on their behalf to figure out how they might get it wrong for the global economy, too.

What if everything turns out just fine?

One of my favorite takeaways from Daniel Kahneman’s Thinking, Fast and Slow is the idea of the premortem—that is, looking at a new or proposed project, assuming it has failed, and projecting why that happened. (It's a more proactive version of the postmortem, where you look at actual failures and try to figure out what went wrong.)

I’m working on two things right now: my economic and market outlook for 2015, and an update on the international economic scene that I’ll present at Commonwealth’s top-producer conferences.

The problem I’m facing with both, I realize, is that the world has really changed in the past couple of years, and the recent past is no longer a good guide to the future.

I recently took a look at housing for the first time in six months or so, and I thought it was time to examine the stock market in similar fashion to see where we are.

In my market commentaries and videos, I have continued to discuss the positive trends and healthy fundamentals—which are very real—but we also need to consider the broader context. The following three indicators paint a somewhat cautionary picture.  

As the industry that led us to disaster in 2008, housing has had a long road back. You can make a good argument that, until the housing market returns to normal, the economy hasn’t really recovered. While not a defining indicator, a healthy housing market is a necessary condition for recovery.

I last looked at housing in June, so it’s time for an update. The news is actually quite good, despite some of the headlines recently. 

I have two reasons for writing a post on gratitude today: The first is that I have much to be grateful for (I plan to write a longer post about this next week as we approach Thanksgiving), and the second is that I have been in meetings all day and am too short on time to finish the housing market post I had planned. You’ll get that tomorrow.