The Independent Market Observer

Monday Update: Initial Jobless Claims Set New Pandemic Low

August 23, 2021

There were a number of important economic data releases last week, with a focus on housing, the July retail sales report, and the weekly initial jobless claims report. Initial unemployment claims set a new pandemic-era low during the second week of August, in an encouraging sign for the ongoing labor market recovery. This will be another busy week for updates, with July’s existing home sales, durable goods orders, and personal spending and income reports serving as highlights.

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The Pandemic’s Financial Impact on Children

August 20, 2021

Last week, I happily returned to yet another tradition that was disrupted by COVID-19: back-to-school shopping. Although I did not miss paying for the rapidly changing school wardrobes of two teenage girls last year, I welcomed the feeling of normalcy the shopping routine brought to my family. COVID-19 and its associated restrictions have had a huge impact on children—educationally, socially, emotionally, and physically. We’ve all seen this. But did you know that, because of the pandemic, children may grow up to be worse off financially than their parents?

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Lessons in Economics: Keynes Vs. Hayek

August 19, 2021

I originally shared this post back in 2014, but I think you will find it still offers some valuable lessons for today. — Brad

I thought it would be fun to share a couple of videos that offer some entertaining—and surprisingly accurate—lessons in economics. Even better, they do so à la rap!

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This Is What We Do: The Value of Financial Advisors

August 18, 2021

I'll be on vacation for the rest of the week, so I'll be re-running a couple of my favorite posts. This one is from 2019, but I think the message holds true today. Enjoy! — Brad

I get a lot out of meeting with advisors and clients. It is always good to hear what people are thinking, listen to their concerns, and spend time understanding where real people who live outside of the investment bubble that I inhabit are coming from. The past week spent traveling was a great opportunity to do just that. But sometimes you get more than you expect.

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What Corporate Earnings Tell Us About the Rest of 2021

August 17, 2021

For the second earnings season in a row, we have had blowout results. After an amazingly strong first quarter, the results for the second quarter are coming in even better. As of the end of last week, according to FactSet, 9 of 10 companies (91 percent) had reported. Of these, almost 7 of 8 (87 percent) beat expected earnings. These are the highest levels of beats on earnings seen since the start of records in 2008 and slightly above what we saw last quarter.

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Monday Update: Consumer Inflation Moderates in July

August 16, 2021

Last week saw a number of important economic data releases, with a focus on July’s inflation reports and a first look into consumer confidence in August. Consumer inflation slowed in July compared with data from June, but the overall level of inflation remains elevated. This will be another busy week for updates. Highlights will include reports on the housing sector as well as retail sales in July.

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The Stock Market and the Economy

August 13, 2021

In 2020, the U.S. GDP declined 3.4 percent, yet the S&P 500 was up 18.4 percent. In the first half of 2021, the U.S. GDP grew by 6.4 percent, and the S&P 500 was up by 15.25 percent.

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Monthly Market Risk Update: August 2021

August 12, 2021

My colleague Sam Millette, manager, fixed income, on Commonwealth’s Investment Management and Research team, has helped me put together this month’s Market Risk Update. Thanks for the assist, Sam!

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Is Inflation Still Accelerating?

August 11, 2021

Over the past couple of weeks, I have gotten a number of questions on inflation. It seems to be one of the top-of-mind issues. Given that, and the fact that the most recent inflation data hit this morning, it seems appropriate to give an update.

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Economic Risk Factor Update: August 2021

August 10, 2021

My colleague Sam Millette, senior investment research analyst on Commonwealth’s Investment Management and Research team, has helped me put together this month’s Economic Risk Factor Update. Thanks for the assist, Sam!

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The information on this website is intended for informational/educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security or investment product. Please contact your financial professional for more information specific to your situation.

Certain sections of this commentary contain forward-looking statements that are based on our reasonable expectations, estimates, projections, and assumptions. Forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve certain risks and uncertainties, which are difficult to predict. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Diversification does not assure a profit or protect against loss in declining markets.

The S&P 500 Index is a broad-based measurement of changes in stock market conditions based on the average performance of 500 widely held common stocks. All indices are unmanaged and investors cannot invest directly in an index.

The MSCI EAFE (Europe, Australia, Far East) Index is a free float‐adjusted market capitalization index that is designed to measure the equity market performance of developed markets, excluding the U.S. and Canada. The MSCI EAFE Index consists of 21 developed market country indices.

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