I got a question last week that I thought was excellent: how does climate change do when we apply the same set of crisis tests we did to Evergrande and the great financial crisis (GFC)? It may seem to be a political question—and quite possibly it was intended as such. But in my mind, applying this set of nonpolitical tests is a great way to take it out of the realm of politics, where I have no special expertise, and into the realm of economics and data analysis, where I do. Today, let’s take a nonpolitical look, based on the data, at whether climate change is something that we, as investors, should be keeping an eye on.

I watch sports only occasionally, but in the past year or two, I have gotten increasingly into watching pro football—probably as a result of being bored at home during the pandemic and the drama around the turn of the Patriots dynasty. I have to admit, there are some terrific athletes out there. There’s Brady, of course, but many others as well. It has been great to come back to something I enjoyed as a kid.

Last week saw a number of important economic updates, with a focus on durable goods orders, consumer and manufacturer confidence, and August personal income and spending. Durable goods orders and personal spending were highlights, as both increased by more than expected in August. This will be another busy week for updates, with news on international trade, service sector confidence, and September employment to come.

September was a bad month for the markets. In the U.S., all three major indices were down. Developed markets dropped, and emerging markets did worst of all. These declines resulted from the weakening of the economic data, driven by the spread of the Delta wave of the virus. Job growth was down, layoffs trended up, and consumer confidence dropped.

After a great start to the quarter in July and August, September was when the storms hit. Here in the U.S., markets pulled back significantly. The Dow declined by 4.2 percent for the month and 1.46 percent for the quarter. The S&P went down by even more for the month, at a 4.65 percent decline, although it gained 0.58 percent for the quarter. Finally, the Nasdaq trailed by even more, at a 5.27 percent monthly drop and a 0.23 percent loss for the quarter. Abroad, international markets were also hit, with developed markets down for both the month and quarter, at 2.9 percent and 0.45 percent, respectively. Emerging markets dropped 3.94 percent for the month and 7.97 percent for the quarter.

Today, I want to apply the analysis we laid out yesterday to the great financial crisis (GFC). The idea is to see whether it would have given us some advance warning of just how bad that crisis got. If so, the analysis might be useful in identifying future crises that are actually worth worrying about.

We are now entering the phase of the market cycle where worries start to proliferate. We’ve already talked about Evergrande, supply chain issues, rising interest rates, and so on—and the risks for all of these things are real. As the situations evolve, though, each of these categories and others will present themselves in different ways. For example, looking at China, we have Evergrande, the demographic rollover there, trade and competition issues with the U.S., and many more. Even as one issue (Evergrande) starts to recede from investor consciousness, others will rise again.

This post will be on the short side, as I am leaving Laguna Niguel in California at the end of the Commonwealth Summit Club conference. I wanted to take some time, however, to comment on something that has been forcing itself to my attention all week: the supply chain issues that are driving much of the current inflation concerns.

Last week saw a number of important economic updates, with a focus on the housing sector and the FOMC rate decision from the Fed’s September meeting. The housing market showed signs of continued growth, as both housing starts and building permits increased by more than expected in August. This will be another busy week for updates. Highlights will include reports on durable goods orders, consumer and manufacturer confidence, and August personal income and spending.

“There is an art to science, and a science in art; the two are not enemies, but different aspects of the whole.” — Isaac Asimov