I’m the archetypal Apple customer. Between my wife, my son, and me, we own five Macs (including work computers), three iPhones, at least three iPods, and two iPads. I understand the attraction of the whole Apple experience. That said, I haven’t been a fan of Apple stock.

Why?

I figure my family has already bought pretty much everything we could use from the company’s current product lines. In my mind, Apple is more of a movie studio than a regular company, in that it depends on a stream of hits to grow. Samsung and Android are nipping at Apple’s heels in the phone and tablet space. Google is pushing hard at the laptop space with its Chromebooks. And the desktop market is no longer a growth area.

One of the real problems Europe faces, in my opinion, is that its banking system has never really acknowledged its problems and raised capital to the extent it should have. 

The U.S. banking system, on the other hand, has raised substantial capital and pretty much restored itself to financial health—as the banks interpret it, anyway.

Even as the U.S. economy continues to improve, and signs of better times keep popping up—the most recent being a break in the oil price below $100 per barrel, which will support consumer spending—other parts of the world continue to show signs of weakness.

Today, I want to highlight something that hasn’t yet become a major worry for Europe, but probably will: the possible secession of Scotland from the United Kingdom.

“When in danger or in doubt / Run in circles, scream and shout.”

Although the source of this quotation isn’t clear—several authors, including Robert Heinlein and Herman Wouk, come up—I suspect it was probably inspired by the stock market. In any event, the disappointing employment report released this morning is sure to generate some amount of angst.

My dad is a pretty level-headed guy, not prone to panic or take things too seriously, so when he forwards me an article asking whether it’s plausible, I take a look.

As I mentioned yesterday, when we compare the actual data with what the doomsayers predicted several years ago, they were just plain wrong. Nonetheless, they continue to try to sell their products by scaring people.

The article my dad just passed along—which suggests that the Federal Reserve is actually bankrupt—is a good example of this type of scaremongering. Posted on a site called Money Morning, it takes some facts, adds some possibilities, mixes in a good dose of “coulds” and “maybes,” and comes up with a set of implications designed to frighten people into buying whatever the doomsayers are selling.

In my latest Market Thoughts video, I provide an update on the financial markets and the U.S. economy, including potential risks, as we head into fall. 

Over the past couple of years, various predictions of doom have been making the rounds.

The dollar, if you remember, was going to collapse. Ditto the housing market. The U.S. economy was going to go into cardiac arrest as it overdosed on Fed stimulus. Employment was never going to come back. I could go on, but you get the idea.

So, how accurate have these scary predictions been? As it turns out, we didn’t have much to worry about.

As we enter the month of September, it’s time to take another look at the economic forecast, focusing on factors that have proven to be reliable indicators of economic trouble ahead. As expected, the data hasn’t changed much from last month—it’s encouraging in almost all areas and has even improved in some cases.

Like anyone who works with investments and Wall Street, I definitely have something of a pro-business perspective. One of the great things about Commonwealth, though, is that while we deal with Wall Street, we’re not a Wall Street firm. We’re a Main Street firm, working with independent advisors who have ordinary people as clients. 

This gives me a slightly different perspective on the world than many of my colleagues at other firms. I speak with our advisors almost every day, and directly to and with their clients on a regular basis. While Wall Street can be disconnected from reality, here at Commonwealth, we do our best to avoid that.

In the past couple of days, I’ve read several articles in the newspapers and in professional forums denouncing the notion of market timing. They say, quite correctly, that no one can time the market and call the ups and downs. Very true. They also say that various market timing tools won’t generate higher returns consistently. Again, very true. They conclude that it makes no sense to step back from the stock market occasionally to assess market conditions.

Let’s put this analysis in a different context, though, and see if that conclusion makes sense. Forget the stock market, let’s talk about the weather—specifically, hurricanes.