This week’s market melt-up has been widely attributed to the release of the Federal Reserve’s meeting minutes. More or less, the Fed said it was worried about global growth and would probably be slower in raising rates than many had expected.

The effect on the market was substantial, which prompts a number of questions. But the one I want to talk about this morning is why the Fed is so worried.

Yesterday was a bad day for the stock market, which dropped sharply on fears about European growth. So they say, anyway.

Pinpointing a single reason for market moves has always seemed misguided to me, when you think about all the factors behind any investment decision. Even so, taking it at face value, what should we make of European growth and yesterday’s market decline?

One of the joys of my job is that I’m constantly learning new things. A great way to do this is to go to a conference, listen to smart people speak, and then sit down and chat with them. That’s what I’m doing right now at Commonwealth’s National Conference.

How big of a concern is Europe to the ongoing U.S. economic recovery? Hear what I discussed with CNBC Worldwide Exchange in an interview yesterday, October 6.

In my latest Market Thoughts video, I provide an update on the difficult quarter-end for the markets, international volatility, and the status of the U.S. economy. 

It’s time for our monthly update on risk factors that have proven to be reliable indicators of economic trouble ahead. As expected, the data hasn’t changed that much from last month—it remains encouraging in almost all areas, and has continued to improve in many cases—but it’s still important to keep an eye on things.

As we enter the month of October, though, the economic forecast remains good.

As I noted a couple of days ago, if you look at average future stock returns from our current valuation level of 26.3 on a Shiller P/E basis, they don’t seem all that bad. Historically, 10-year returns should be in the range of 7.5 percent and 5-year returns around 5 percent, on average. Not too shabby.

Averages conceal a multitude of sins, though, so let’s look a little closer. One question I have is whether the return spreads are consistent over time. If not, we have to ask whether the overall results are applicable to today.

After the decline in the stock market yesterday, the question on many people’s minds is whether this is the correction we’ve been waiting for. It could be. But even if it’s not, we may well be in for a turbulent month.

Let's look at what could be behind the market drop and where the market might be going from here.

Following up on yesterday’s post about what kind of returns we can expect from bond investments, today let’s look at stocks. With the market recently bouncing off all-time highs, it seems like a good time to consider what the future holds.

Are we poised for more of a run-up over the next several years, or is the market likely to disappoint in its returns?

One of the reasons investors fail to achieve their goals is that they have unrealistic expectations. When those expectations aren’t met, for whatever reason, they tend to sell.

Consider the well-known tendency to chase performance—that is, to buy a fund or stock that has been doing well. In doing so, the investor believes, he or she can expect future performance like that of the recent past. This leads to the momentum effect, which can drive prices up further, but ultimately may not be sustainable. When investors realize they won’t be getting the returns they expect, they sell, leading to downward momentum.