The Independent Market Observer

More About Student Debt: A Justified Investment

July 21, 2016

A couple of months ago, I wrote that the student debt problem isn’t as bad as it looks on the surface. I recently found a more up-to-date take on the subject from the White House, which came to the same conclusion.

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Presidential Politics and the Stock Market

July 20, 2016

Now that both parties have nailed down their presidential nominees, it’s time to take a quick look at politics and how it may affect the economy and markets this year. As usual, we’ll focus on the policies that the two candidates have offered and their likely consequences.

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U.S. Financial Markets: Strength Amid Global Turmoil

July 19, 2016

The last couple of weeks have been tough. Between the multiple tragedies in the U.S., the attempted coup in Turkey, Britain’s decision to exit the European Union, and the subsequent change of government there, it’s been difficult to keep an even keel.

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Monday Update: Three Strong Weeks in a Row

July 18, 2016

Yet again, the economy surprised us with good news last week. U.S. consumers went shopping, driving retail sales numbers higher. At the same time, both industrial production and manufacturing beat expectations and moved back to growth.

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Lower Yields: Not the Typical Risk-Off Trade

July 15, 2016

With all of the headlines about interest rates hitting record lows—and with the worries about why this has happened and what it means—it is important to put some facts and context around what, in many ways, is an unprecedented set of circumstances. The following piece by Meagan Rogers, manager of Commonwealth’s Fixed Income Research team, does just that. She does an excellent job explaining the what, why, and how of lower yields, and I think it is well worth your time. Thanks, Meagan!

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Appearance on CNBC's Power Lunch, July 14, 2016 [Video]

July 15, 2016

With markets returning to all-time highs, where are the opportunities? Yesterday afternoon, I was on CNBC's Power Lunch to discuss where I see chances for potential growth, including within consumer staples and financials, with co-anchor Tyler Mathisen.

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Should We Be Worried About the Chinese Currency?

July 14, 2016

After the pullback in the first quarter of the year, followed by the Brexit collapse and quick recovery, it seems as if the market has pretty much decided to head up. With U.S. markets at all-time highs and earnings coming in better than expected so far, it seems quite likely we will see continued appreciation.

That said, we also need to start thinking about what could potentially bring the stock market's updward climb to an end.

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The Market’s New High Score

July 13, 2016

This morning, the Dow Jones Industrial Average hit a new all-time high, as did the S&P 500. The news coverage seems to be split between those calling for even higher stock prices and those who are worried that a new bubble is forming.

In fact, it could be both.

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Monthly Market Risk Update: July 2016

July 12, 2016

Just as I do with the economy, I review the market each month for warning signs of trouble in the near future. Although valuations are now high—a noted risk factor in past bear markets—markets can stay expensive (or get much more expensive) for years and years, which doesn’t give us much to go on timing-wise.

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Monday Update: More Positive Surprises

July 11, 2016

For the second week in a row, the U.S. economy offered positive surprises. Both the service sector—the largest portion of the economy—and the employment market showed marked improvement, with data coming in well above expectations. Coupled with results from the previous week, the latest numbers suggest the economy has started to move again.

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The information on this website is intended for informational/educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security or investment product. Please contact your financial professional for more information specific to your situation.

Certain sections of this commentary contain forward-looking statements that are based on our reasonable expectations, estimates, projections, and assumptions. Forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve certain risks and uncertainties, which are difficult to predict. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Diversification does not assure a profit or protect against loss in declining markets.

The S&P 500 Index is a broad-based measurement of changes in stock market conditions based on the average performance of 500 widely held common stocks. All indices are unmanaged and investors cannot invest directly in an index.

The MSCI EAFE (Europe, Australia, Far East) Index is a free float‐adjusted market capitalization index that is designed to measure the equity market performance of developed markets, excluding the U.S. and Canada. The MSCI EAFE Index consists of 21 developed market country indices.

One basis point (bp) is equal to 1/100th of 1 percent, or 0.01 percent.

The VIX (CBOE Volatility Index) measures the market’s expectation of 30-day volatility across a wide range of S&P 500 options.

The forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio divides the current share price of the index by its estimated future earnings.

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