The Independent Market Observer

What Does the Tax Proposal Mean for the Markets?

September 28, 2017

The big economic news today is the tax reform proposal that the Trump administration unveiled yesterday. For once, we have a proposal that really does live up to the hype. If passed (a big assumption!), this would be the most consequential revamp of the tax system since 1986 in the Reagan administration.

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North Korea: A Slow-Motion Crisis?

September 27, 2017

Yesterday, I spoke with an advisor who told me that a potential confrontation between the U.S. and North Korea is creating a lot of fear among his clients. In fact, one client wants to sell everything and go to cash due to concerns over what might happen. I certainly understand this, particularly in light of the rising level of rhetoric from both sides. That being said, I don’t think we need to be as worried as all that.

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Why the German Election Matters

September 26, 2017

Sitting here in the U.S., Europe seems pretty far away. With everything that is going on with our government and the high-profile military risks (North Korea, anyone?), it would be easy to pass over the results from the German election. But I think that would be a mistake, as the outcome of this election reveals several important signs for the future.

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Monday Update: Hurricanes Continue to Affect the Data

September 25, 2017

Last week, the economic data was all about housing. While disappointing overall, there were signs of future improvement. Plus, the potential effects of the hurricanes make it hard to determine if there is real decay or only passing damage. The Fed remains confident, which suggests that the weakness might be short term, rather than something worse.

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Is Debt Risk Moving Back into the Spotlight?

September 22, 2017

With the front-page news dominated by politics and the hurricanes, there is actually not a lot to report on the economic front. This is a good thing, as it signals that economy continues to do well. It does, however, make it necessary to dig a bit deeper to find out what we should be paying attention to.

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Oil Prices Collapse: Is the Energy Industry Going Back to the Future?

September 21, 2017

Energy, in particular the oil and gas industry, has always been one of the foundations of both the economy and the financial markets. The world has run on oil and gas for decades, to the extent that oil prices have been among the key determinants of recessions and market crashes. In recent years, that impact has been just as strong. The rise in oil prices in the 2000s—and the recent collapse—shook economies and governments around the world.

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Where Does the Fed Go from Here?

September 20, 2017

Today, the Federal Reserve’s two-day meeting on monetary policy will come to an end. With a news conference already scheduled, markets will be turning toward Washington to see what the Fed is doing today—and where it is likely to go from here.

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What Are Investors Worried About?

September 19, 2017

Yesterday, I spent the day in New York talking with a number of people, including many in the media. I always find this incredibly interesting. Media folks are invariably intelligent and very well informed about what a wide variety of players, including investors, are worried about—and what they are actually doing about it.

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Appearance on CNBC's Squawk Box, September 18, 2017 [Video]

September 18, 2017

In the past few weeks, we've seen North Korea launching missiles over Japan and the two worst storms in U.S. history. So, why are the markets still at all-time highs?

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Monday Update: Hurricane Harvey Leads to Disappointing Data

September 18, 2017

Last week presented a wide range of data—from the consumer, to manufacturing, to the economy as a whole. Although the results were generally disappointing, much of that weakness appears to come from the effects of Hurricane Harvey. Historically, major storms have resulted in weak data for a month or two. So, while it is worth watching, we will likely see a bounce back in the coming months.

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