The Independent Market Observer

Investing in Troubled Times: Navigating North Korea, Harvey, and Irma

September 7, 2017

The past few weeks have been unusually turbulent. North Korea has tested what is reportedly a hydrogen bomb and launched a missile over Japan; as a result, the U.S. is openly considering war. Hurricane Harvey has been the most damaging storm ever, devastating both Texas and Louisiana. And now we have Hurricane Irma, the most powerful Atlantic storm in history, approaching Florida. Given these events, there are certain questions that investors should be asking themselves. That is, should we be doing something different? If so, what?

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Market Thoughts for September 2017 [Video]

September 6, 2017

August was a solid month for the economy and financial markets. International markets were mixed, but U.S. markets were up across the board, despite rising tensions with North Korea and the effects of Hurricane Harvey. Plus, retail sales came back, employment grew, and consumers seemed willing and able to spend.

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Monday Update: Outlook Positive for Faster Growth

September 5, 2017

Today's post is from Sam Millette, a fixed income analyst on Commonwealth's Investment Management and Research team.

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Is the Employment Boom Still On?

September 1, 2017

Early last year, I made a rather bold statement: the employment boom was on. I had been hinting at it well before that, but in April, I finally felt that I could make a good case. Now, more than a year later, concerns about the economy are rising. So, is the employment boom still on?

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What Consumer Debt Levels Say About the Business Cycle

August 30, 2017

Today’s post is from Peter Essele, a manager on Commonwealth’s Investment Management and Research team.

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Monday Update: Signs of a Slowdown?

August 28, 2017

Today's post is from Sam Millette, a fixed income analyst on Commonwealth's Investment Management and Research team.

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And the 2017 Bubble of the Year Award Goes To . . .

August 25, 2017

Eagerly anticipated by all, it’s time once again to award the Bubble of the Year statuette, affectionately known as “the Bubby.” The award is a long-standing tradition, dating from yesterday afternoon, when I spent some time contemplating the day’s bitcoin pricing. With bitcoin up roughly 50 percent so far this month—and increasing significantly during this past year—we must ask, “Is this a bubble?” And if so, “What exactly is a bubble?”

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What Happens to the Stock Market in Times of War?

August 23, 2017

Today's post is from Anuradha Gaggar of Commonwealth’s Investment Research team.

Earlier this month, capital markets declined sharply at the very hint of rising tensions between the U.S. and North Korea. Now, it’s not surprising that many global citizens would be fearful at the thought of nuclear war and the far-reaching social, political, and economic effects that could result. What may be surprising, however, is that capital markets have historically been much more stoic in times of war.

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Monday Update: Retail Sales and Confidence Bounce Back

August 21, 2017

Brad here. Today's post is from Sam Millette, a fixed income analyst on our Investment Management and Research team. Over to you, Sam.

Last week, several important economic data points were released, covering major components of the economy. Much of this news came in better than expected, and the overall economic picture suggests accelerated growth in the second half of the year.

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The Dog That Did Not Bark: Why Isn’t the Market Reacting to Drama?

August 18, 2017

In thinking about the market over the past week or two, what has really struck me is how truly remarkable the market’s behavior has been. After the U.S. president implicitly threatened nuclear war, the market dropped, of course—but by less than 2 percent—and then it bounced back. Today, after CEOs from big-time companies essentially abandoned the White House, the market is down—but by less than 1 percent. We’ve seen more political drama in the past couple of weeks than we saw in years under some administrations—and the market is just sitting there. What’s going on?

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Certain sections of this commentary contain forward-looking statements that are based on our reasonable expectations, estimates, projections, and assumptions. Forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve certain risks and uncertainties, which are difficult to predict. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Diversification does not assure a profit or protect against loss in declining markets.

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