--- title: "Monday Update: Hurricane Harvey Leads to Disappointing Data" description: Are we seeing the effects of Hurricane Harvey on the economic data? Commonwealth CIO Brad McMillan takes a closer look in his Monday update. image: https://blog.commonwealth.com/hubfs/Brad_Images_IMO_Blog/2017/MarketOutlook_1.jpg --- [![The Independent Market Observer](https://blog.commonwealth.com/hubfs/IMO-Title-1.png "The Independent Market Observer")](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer) [![Commonwealth Financial Network](https://blog.commonwealth.com/hubfs/lockup_citron-1.png "Commonwealth Financial Network")](https://www.commonwealth.com/) - [Home](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer) - [About](https://learn.commonwealth.com/about/) ### ![print this page](https://blog.commonwealth.com/hs-fs/file-1376458285-gif/images/print.gif)Print # [Monday Update: Hurricane Harvey Leads to Disappointing Data](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/monday-update-hurricane-harvey-leads-to-disappointing-data) Posted by [Brad McMillan, CFA®, CFP®](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/author/brad-mcmillan-cfa-caia-mai) Find me on: [LinkedIn](https://www.linkedin.com/in/bradmcmillancfa) [Twitter](https://x.com/BradMcMillanCFA) This entry was posted on Sep 18, 2017, 1:47:55 PM and tagged [In the News](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/topic/in-the-news) [Leave a comment](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/monday-update-hurricane-harvey-leads-to-disappointing-data#comments-listing) ![Monday update](https://blog.commonwealth.com/hs-fs/hubfs/Brad_Images_IMO_Blog/2017/MarketOutlook_1.jpg?width=300&name=MarketOutlook_1.jpg "Monday update")Last week presented a wide range of data—from the consumer, to manufacturing, to the economy as a whole. Although the results were generally disappointing, much of that weakness appears to come from the effects of Hurricane Harvey. Historically, major storms have resulted in weak data for a month or two. So, while it is worth watching, we will likely see a bounce back in the coming months. ##### Last week’s news On Thursday, the **consumer price index** gave us a look at inflation. The monthly change in the headline index, which includes food and energy, surprised to the upside. It increased 0.4 percent in August, well above both the 0.1-percent increase in July and expectations of a 0.3-percent gain. The rise was largely due to the spike in gas prices after Hurricane Harvey. This took the annual inflation rate from 1.7 percent to 1.9 percent, closer to the Federal Reserve’s 2-percent target. Core prices—which exclude energy and food and were therefore not affected by the spike in gasoline prices—rose. Here, there was a more modest increase from 0.1 percent to 0.2 percent on a monthly basis. This result was in line with expectations and stayed steady on an annual basis at 1.7 percent, higher than expectations of 1.6 percent. Core prices are a better signal for underlying economic conditions, as energy and food prices can be volatile. The monthly increase, combined with the higher-than-expected annual figure, may ease the Fed’s concern about low inflation. The **retail sales report**, released on Friday, showed a 0.2-percent decline in August for the headline retail sales figure, which includes autos. This was down from 0.6 percent in July and below expectations for a 0.1-percent gain on declining auto sales. The core figure, which excludes autos and is therefore a better indicator for underlying trends, also underperformed. It showed a gain of 0.2 percent in August. This result was a decline from a downwardly revised gain of 0.4 percent in July and below expectations of a gain of 0.5 percent. Although disappointing, the weakness may be due to hurricane effects. **Industrial production** also disappointed significantly. It was down by 0.9 percent in August, from an upwardly revised 0.4-percent gain in July. This decline was largely due to low utilities output. More significant, manufacturing growth also came in well below expectations. Here, there was a 0.3-percent decline in August—below a decline of 0.1 percent in July and well below expectations of growth of 0.5 percent. This result was quite surprising, given the increase in manufacturing employment in the previous month. But, again, a Fed study suggests that much of the weakness was due to Harvey. Finally, the **University of Michigan consumer confidence survey** declined slightly to 95.3 from 96.8, better than expectations of 95. It remains at a very healthy level, despite the effects of the hurricanes and rising gas prices. Consumers do not appear to be much concerned with the storms, which suggests the economic damage may be short lived. As noted above, weak data is normal in the aftermath of a major storm, so there is nothing to worry about at this point. We will keep an eye on these stats, but the effects of Harvey and Irma can be expected to run through the data for the next month or two. We will be interpreting it accordingly. ##### What to look forward to Most of the economic data this week focuses on housing. On Monday, the **National Association of Home Builders industry survey** will be released. It is expected to decrease from a very strong level of 68 in August to a still strong level of 67 in September. Given extensive damage from hurricanes Harvey and Irma—which may worsen labor and material shortages for homebuilders—there may be some downside risk to this number. On Tuesday, **housing starts** are expected to tick up from 1.155 million in July to 1.18 million in August. The July number was a surprise, resulting from declines in multi-family developments, which have historically been volatile. Single-family starts held their ground. Although multi-family starts are expected to decline even more in August, strong demand and limited supply for single-family homes should keep that sector increasing. On Wednesday, **existing home sales** are likewise expected to tick up—from 5.44 million in July to 5.47 million in August. Once again, despite strong demand, low inventory is expected to constrain sales. This means there is some downside risk to this number. The July number was the lowest in almost a year, and the trend is likely to continue. Also on Wednesday, the **Federal Open Market Committee** will conclude its regular meeting. Although the Fed is likely to continue viewing the economy in a positive light, uncertainty around inflation, as well as the unknown impacts of the hurricanes, will likely result in no change to interest rates. The Fed is expected, however, to start the process of reducing the balance sheet by slowing the reinvestment of maturing securities and payments. This has been well telegraphed to markets, and reaction should be minimal. Still, markets will be watching to make sure that the actual plan is the same as described previously. Overall, if the news comes in as expected, the signal for the rest of the economy will be positive. Have a great week! - [Tweet](https://twitter.com/share) ### Subscribe via Email ![TMO_IMO_615x408_sidebar](https://blog.commonwealth.com/hs-fs/hubfs/TMO_IMO_615x408_sidebar.png?width=1033&height=686&name=TMO_IMO_615x408_sidebar.png "TMO_IMO_615x408_sidebar") [Episode 20](https://vimeo.com/1201911815/0f4f028be9?share=copy&fl=sv&fe=ci) June 17, 2026 [Episode 19](https://vimeo.com/1191658257/1b43ce84dd?share=copy&fl=sv&fe=ci) May 13, 2026 [Episode 18](https://vimeo.com/1183174918/e227cf7d80?share=copy&fl=sv&fe=ci) April 15, 2026 [Episode 17](https://vimeo.com/1174554734/636f0f7aba?share=copy&fl=sv&fe=ci) March 18, 2026 [Episode 16](https://vimeo.com/1163757312/bc2f802d74?share=copy&fl=sv&fe=ci) February 11, 2026 [More](https://learn.commonwealth.com/monthly-media-placements) [![Insights_CTA_IMO_233x400-1](https://no-cache.hubspot.com/cta/default/295024/interactive-187935228457.png)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/hs/cta/wi/redirect?encryptedPayload=AVxigLJZwOsm1bFErIGNwhlNH2Dy4JsJLT%2BKpNVhCmhOEC5bV91ggZPTezeROgdXvZCSJlgJQ47LHzw0AiS8gopegzeg7SPdVgX3SbZXaC%2BWubKl%2BhToOUacdo09MI%2FFPQEgPyRd6rgKCguXrXeAaUl9JZZG6O7FofaH0etAEzvKdStiNSeJqqbOmec%3D&webInteractiveContentId=187935228457&portalId=295024) ### Hot Topics Select Category Ask Brad Commentary Economic Risk Factor Updates Economics Lessons Market Thoughts Videos In the News Investing Market Updates On My Bookshelf Politics and the Economy [![New Call-to-action](https://no-cache.hubspot.com/cta/default/295024/5f46d9ce-4d40-495c-a126-d4502b647bbf.png)](https://cta-redirect.hubspot.com/cta/redirect/295024/5f46d9ce-4d40-495c-a126-d4502b647bbf) ### Archives - [July 2026 (3)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2026/07) - [June 2026 (2)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2026/06) - [May 2026 (2)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2026/05) - [April 2026 (3)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2026/04) - [March 2026 (3)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2026/03) - [February 2026 (4)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2026/02) - [January 2026 (3)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2026/01) - [December 2025 (3)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2025/12) - [November 2025 (3)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2025/11) - [October 2025 (4)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2025/10) - [September 2025 (4)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2025/09) - [August 2025 (3)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2025/08) - [July 2025 (4)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2025/07) - [June 2025 (5)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2025/06) - [May 2025 (5)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2025/05) - [April 2025 (7)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2025/04) - [March 2025 (5)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2025/03) - [February 2025 (2)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2025/02) - [January 2025 (1)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2025/01) - [December 2024 (2)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2024/12) - [November 2024 (2)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2024/11) - [October 2024 (9)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2024/10) - [September 2024 (12)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2024/09) - [August 2024 (11)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2024/08) - [July 2024 (15)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2024/07) - [June 2024 (13)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2024/06) - [May 2024 (11)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2024/05) - [April 2024 (13)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2024/04) - [March 2024 (13)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2024/03) - [February 2024 (11)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2024/02) - [January 2024 (13)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2024/01) - [December 2023 (15)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2023/12) - [November 2023 (19)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2023/11) - [October 2023 (17)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2023/10) - [September 2023 (14)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2023/09) - [August 2023 (16)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2023/08) - [July 2023 (15)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2023/07) - [June 2023 (14)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2023/06) - [May 2023 (16)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2023/05) - [April 2023 (13)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2023/04) - [March 2023 (17)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2023/03) - [February 2023 (14)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2023/02) - [January 2023 (16)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2023/01) - [December 2022 (15)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2022/12) - [November 2022 (14)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2022/11) - [October 2022 (17)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2022/10) - [September 2022 (14)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2022/09) - [August 2022 (17)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2022/08) - [July 2022 (18)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2022/07) - [June 2022 (15)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2022/06) - [May 2022 (17)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2022/05) - [April 2022 (20)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2022/04) - [March 2022 (23)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2022/03) - [February 2022 (19)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2022/02) - [January 2022 (20)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2022/01) - [December 2021 (22)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2021/12) - [November 2021 (20)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2021/11) - [October 2021 (21)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2021/10) - [September 2021 (22)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2021/09) - [August 2021 (22)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2021/08) - [July 2021 (21)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2021/07) - [June 2021 (24)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2021/06) - [May 2021 (20)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2021/05) - [April 2021 (20)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2021/04) - [March 2021 (23)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2021/03) - [February 2021 (19)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2021/02) - [January 2021 (20)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2021/01) - [December 2020 (25)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2020/12) - [November 2020 (21)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2020/11) - [October 2020 (23)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2020/10) - [September 2020 (22)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2020/09) - [August 2020 (25)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2020/08) - [July 2020 (26)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2020/07) - [June 2020 (23)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2020/06) - [May 2020 (22)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2020/05) - [April 2020 (24)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2020/04) - [March 2020 (27)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2020/03) - [February 2020 (21)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2020/02) - [January 2020 (21)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2020/01) - [December 2019 (23)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2019/12) - [November 2019 (22)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2019/11) - [October 2019 (24)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2019/10) - [September 2019 (21)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2019/09) - [August 2019 (26)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2019/08) - [July 2019 (26)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2019/07) - [June 2019 (22)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2019/06) - [May 2019 (22)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2019/05) - [April 2019 (23)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2019/04) - [March 2019 (23)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2019/03) - [February 2019 (19)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2019/02) - [January 2019 (23)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2019/01) - [December 2018 (21)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2018/12) - [November 2018 (24)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2018/11) - [October 2018 (25)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2018/10) - [September 2018 (19)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2018/09) - [August 2018 (24)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2018/08) - [July 2018 (21)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2018/07) - [June 2018 (22)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2018/06) - [May 2018 (23)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2018/05) - [April 2018 (22)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2018/04) - [March 2018 (23)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2018/03) - [February 2018 (20)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2018/02) - [January 2018 (25)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2018/01) - [December 2017 (21)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2017/12) - [November 2017 (22)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2017/11) - [October 2017 (21)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2017/10) - [September 2017 (22)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2017/09) - [August 2017 (20)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2017/08) - [July 2017 (20)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2017/07) - [June 2017 (25)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2017/06) - [May 2017 (22)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2017/05) - [April 2017 (21)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2017/04) - [March 2017 (23)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2017/03) - [February 2017 (21)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2017/02) - [January 2017 (22)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2017/01) - [December 2016 (21)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2016/12) - [November 2016 (22)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2016/11) - [October 2016 (23)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2016/10) - [September 2016 (22)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2016/09) - [August 2016 (21)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2016/08) - [July 2016 (23)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2016/07) - [June 2016 (24)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2016/06) - [May 2016 (22)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2016/05) - [April 2016 (25)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2016/04) - [March 2016 (24)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2016/03) - [February 2016 (23)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2016/02) - [January 2016 (20)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2016/01) - [December 2015 (24)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2015/12) - [November 2015 (22)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2015/11) - [October 2015 (25)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2015/10) - [September 2015 (22)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2015/09) - [August 2015 (23)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2015/08) - [July 2015 (25)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2015/07) - [June 2015 (25)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2015/06) - [May 2015 (23)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2015/05) - [April 2015 (23)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2015/04) - [March 2015 (23)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2015/03) - [February 2015 (22)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2015/02) - [January 2015 (21)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2015/01) - [December 2014 (24)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2014/12) - [November 2014 (19)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2014/11) - [October 2014 (26)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2014/10) - [September 2014 (22)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2014/09) - [August 2014 (24)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2014/08) - [July 2014 (24)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2014/07) - [June 2014 (24)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2014/06) - [May 2014 (25)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2014/05) - [April 2014 (23)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2014/04) - [March 2014 (24)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2014/03) - [February 2014 (20)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2014/02) - [January 2014 (23)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2014/01) - [December 2013 (23)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2013/12) - [November 2013 (24)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2013/11) - [October 2013 (27)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2013/10) - [September 2013 (23)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2013/09) - [August 2013 (26)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2013/08) - [July 2013 (23)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2013/07) - [June 2013 (22)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2013/06) - [May 2013 (26)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2013/05) - [April 2013 (24)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2013/04) - [March 2013 (24)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2013/03) - [February 2013 (20)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2013/02) - [January 2013 (30)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2013/01) - [December 2012 (34)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2012/12) - [November 2012 (39)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2012/11) - [October 2012 (42)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2012/10) - [September 2012 (36)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2012/09) - [August 2012 (30)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2012/08) - [July 2012 (31)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2012/07) - [June 2012 (18)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2012/06) see all ### Subscribe - [RSS](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/rss.xml) ### Disclosure The information on this website is intended for informational/educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security or investment product. Please contact your financial professional for more information specific to your situation. Certain sections of this commentary contain forward-looking statements that are based on our reasonable expectations, estimates, projections, and assumptions. Forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve certain risks and uncertainties, which are difficult to predict. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Diversification does not assure a profit or protect against loss in declining markets. The S&P 500 Index is a broad-based measurement of changes in stock market conditions based on the average performance of 500 widely held common stocks. All indices are unmanaged and investors cannot invest directly in an index. The MSCI EAFE (Europe, Australia, Far East) Index is a free float‐adjusted market capitalization index that is designed to measure the equity market performance of developed markets, excluding the U.S. and Canada. The MSCI EAFE Index consists of 21 developed market country indices. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is computed by summing the prices of the stocks of 30 large companies and then dividing that total by an adjusted value, one which has been adjusted over the years to account for the effects of stock splits on the prices of the 30 companies. Dividends are reinvested to reflect the actual performance of the underlying securities. The Russell 2000 is a market-capitalization weighted index, with dividends reinvested, that consists of the 2,000 smallest companies within the Russell 3000 Index. It is often used to track the performance of U.S. small market capitalization stocks. One basis point (bp) is equal to 1/100th of 1 percent, or 0.01 percent. The VIX (CBOE Volatility Index) measures the market’s expectation of 30-day volatility across a wide range of S&P 500 options. The forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio divides the current share price of the index by its estimated future earnings. Third-party links are provided to you as a courtesy. We make no representation as to the completeness or accuracy of information provided on these websites. Information on such sites, including third-party links contained within, should not be construed as an endorsement or adoption by Commonwealth of any kind. You should consult with a financial advisor regarding your specific situation. Member [FINRA](http://www.FINRA.org), [SIPC](http://www.SIPC.org) Please review our [Terms of Use](https://www.commonwealth.com/terms-of-use).  Commonwealth Financial Network® ![](https://www.facebook.com/tr?id=1808440502705240&ev=PageView&noscript=1)