Market risks come in three flavors: recession risk, economic shock risk, and risks within the market itself. So, what do these risks look like for January? Let’s take a closer look at the numbers.

December’s data remained solid on an absolute basis, suggesting ongoing growth into 2018. With job growth showing signs of a slowdown and consumer and business confidence exhibiting signs of topping, however, the momentum of late 2017 may be fading. Fed policy remains stimulative, although less so than in previous months, but pending expected rate hikes may also start to erode that momentum.

Last week was a busy one for data releases, giving us a wide-ranging look at the economy. Overall, the news remains good and the expansion continues. But there are also signs that growth may be slowing.

Here we go again!

Yesterday, I noted briefly that I would be “keeping an eye” on how long the good times last in the new year. It was one of those offhand comments that, once you think about it, really requires quite a bit more thought and analysis than at first glance. As an example, my dog is now barking like crazy at the snow. Why is he barking? I don’t know, and I suspect he doesn’t either. He just knows things are different and therefore worrying, and he wants to let his people know he’s on the job. My aim is to be at least slightly smarter than the dog here, so let’s lay the groundwork for what we will be watching in 2018.

Today’s post will be a quick note as I catch up after a couple of weeks out for the holidays.

December was another month of good news for the markets. U.S. markets were up across the board, international markets did even better, and emerging markets hit it out of the park. As a result, we are entering the new year with a huge amount of momentum. Hiring continues to be strong, consumer confidence is very close to the highest level since the dot-com boom, and business confidence remains high.

Last week was a short one, due to the Christmas holiday, with only one major data release. But the week ahead will be a busy one and will give us a wide-ranging look at the economy.

As I’ve said many times before, I believe that gratitude is a foundation for both happiness and a mindful life. Every day, I write down at least three things I’m grateful for, a practice that is proven to increase well-being. Beyond that, I also try to make time every couple of months to really think through my life and all I have to be thankful for.

Today’s post comes from Anu Gaggar of Commonwealth’s Investment Research team. Take it away, Anu! —Brad