With the Dow opening above 26,000 yesterday morning, I was all set to continue down the same path of my Dow 24K and Dow 25K posts. Alas, it wasn’t to be. Although markets are up, the Dow is below the magic number as I write this, which is certainly okay. It would not be a bad thing to take a little longer to hit another milestone, as I noted in those previous posts. But what was really interesting about yesterday was not that the milestone was cracked. Rather, it was that sentiment changed and pulled it down again. Past breaks, on the other hand, have driven the market higher. Is this one different?


I was thinking about demographics the other day, in the context of what they mean for economic growth over the next decade or so. One of the reasons growth has been so slow in recent years is simply because of the age mix of the population. Baby boomers are aging and retiring, so they are spending less. The rising millennial generation, on the other hand, has not yet hit its peak earning and spending years. As such, the drag from the boomers offsets the gain from the millennials. It will continue to do so for the next couple of years, but then that will change. The effect of demographics is one of the few things we really can know ahead of time in economics. We know who has been born—and when. After that, it is just a matter of counting.
