The Independent Market Observer

Monday Update (on Tuesday): Strong Data and Upside Surprises

February 6, 2018

Last week was a big one for economic data, with four major reports. Despite the weaker tone of the data in recent weeks, the latest news was quite positive. All indicators either met or beat expectations—sometimes by a lot.

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A Scary Week in the Stock Market—But Also Pretty Normal

February 5, 2018

Wow, that was a bad week. After pushing to new high after new high, the market suddenly rolled over. We saw multi-hundred-point declines on several days, culminating in a 666-point drop in the Dow on Friday. This is reportedly the sixth-largest decline ever.

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Jobs Report: Good, But Not Perfect

February 2, 2018

Today’s big news is the jobs report. It is the single most informative and important economic report there is. As such, it always gets a great deal of attention. In general, the news this month is quite good—but not perfect.

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Market Thoughts for February 2018 [Video]

February 2, 2018

January was another great month for the markets. All three U.S. indices were up by at least 5 percent, as were international markets. There was a bit of a pullback at the end of the month, as interest rates moved up to levels we haven’t seen in years. Indeed, fixed income took a bit of a hit on these higher rates.

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A Look Back at the Markets and Economy in January

February 1, 2018

There is a market adage that states, “as goes January, so goes the year.” We certainly should hope this is the case for 2018, as January was another month of great stock market returns. The U.S. indices were up by 5 percent or more, while international markets—both developed and emerging—did the same. The news was not all good, of course, as markets pulled back at month's end. Given the strong gains up to that point, however, it looks likely to be just profit taking, rather than a harbinger of something worse.

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Dow Drops 500 Points: Is the Sky Falling?

January 31, 2018

Over the past two days, we have had the first sell-off in quite a while. With the Dow falling more than 500 points, is it time to stock up on canned goods and supplies? I don’t think so.

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An Economic State of the Union

January 30, 2018

With President Trump scheduled to give the annual State of the Union address tonight, I thought it would be a good time to consider the economic state of the union. As usual, of course, I am going to pass on the politics and instead take a big-picture look at the economy. 

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Monday Update: Strong Data Continues, Despite Some Weakening

January 29, 2018

The government reopened quickly after a brief shutdown, so last week’s economic data was released after all. It included big-picture news from across the economy, with the signals remaining positive overall despite some weakening in several areas.

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What Does the Decline of the Dollar Mean?

January 26, 2018

One of the dominating economic headlines of late has been the weakness of the dollar. These stories have been exacerbated by Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin’s comment that the “dollar is not a concern of mine.” Reading through the news, there is certainly a great deal of concern over whether a weak dollar is a sign of trouble ahead and whether the decline could get even worse. So, should we as investors or as citizens be worried? In a word, no.

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Why Your Portfolio Didn’t Beat the Dow

January 25, 2018

When investors look at their final statements at year-end, there is bound to be lots of discussion about how their portfolios performed. And, as has become usual in the past couple of years, there will be questions about and comparisons between the U.S. stock indices and that performance. In other words, how can the Dow or the S&P be up by that much and I am “only” up by X?

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The information on this website is intended for informational/educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security or investment product. Please contact your financial professional for more information specific to your situation.

Certain sections of this commentary contain forward-looking statements that are based on our reasonable expectations, estimates, projections, and assumptions. Forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve certain risks and uncertainties, which are difficult to predict. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Diversification does not assure a profit or protect against loss in declining markets.

The S&P 500 Index is a broad-based measurement of changes in stock market conditions based on the average performance of 500 widely held common stocks. All indices are unmanaged and investors cannot invest directly in an index.

The MSCI EAFE (Europe, Australia, Far East) Index is a free float‐adjusted market capitalization index that is designed to measure the equity market performance of developed markets, excluding the U.S. and Canada. The MSCI EAFE Index consists of 21 developed market country indices.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average is computed by summing the prices of the stocks of 30 large companies and then dividing that total by an adjusted value, one which has been adjusted over the years to account for the effects of stock splits on the prices of the 30 companies. Dividends are reinvested to reflect the actual performance of the underlying securities.

The Russell 2000 is a market-capitalization weighted index, with dividends reinvested, that consists of the 2,000 smallest companies within the Russell 3000 Index. It is often used to track the performance of U.S. small market capitalization stocks.

One basis point (bp) is equal to 1/100th of 1 percent, or 0.01 percent.

The VIX (CBOE Volatility Index) measures the market’s expectation of 30-day volatility across a wide range of S&P 500 options.

The forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio divides the current share price of the index by its estimated future earnings.

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