The Independent Market Observer

Looking Back at the Markets in January and Ahead to February 2020

February 11, 2020

January was a tough month. We started with a U.S. attack on an Iranian general (creating thoughts of war) and ended with the possibility of a new global pandemic (with the Wuhan coronavirus spreading around the world). In between, of course, we had the impeachment spectacle here in the U.S., as well as the British exit from the European Union. All in all, it was quite a difficult month from a news perspective. Which made it somewhat odd that markets were not hit harder than they were.

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Monday Update: Business Confidence and Employment Beat Expectations

February 10, 2020

Last week, two major measures of business confidence and January’s jobs report came in better than anticipated, as did most of the other economic updates. This week will be another busy one for reports, with the focus on consumer prices, spending, and confidence.

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Searching for a Leading Economic Indicator

February 7, 2020

Brad here. Today, I’m pleased to introduce a post by Andrew Kitchings, a portfolio manager with Commonwealth’s Investment Management and Research team. Enjoy!

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Jobs Report Preview: Good News Ahead?

February 6, 2020

Tomorrow, we get the big one, the most (in my opinion) significant economic report of all: the jobs report. So, what should we expect?

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Appearance on CNBC’s Power Lunch, February 05, 2020 [Video]

February 6, 2020

From retail sales to housing, we're seeing a real rebound in the economy. I discussed this and more yesterday on CNBC’s Power Lunch.

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As Goes January, So Goes the Year?

February 5, 2020

The idea behind the old adage “as goes January, so goes the year” is this: if the market closes up in January, it will be a good year; if the market closes down in January, it will be a bad year. In fact, it is one of the more reliable of the market saws, having been right almost 9 times out of 10 since 1950. Last year, January saw gains of 7.9 percent for the S&P 500 (the best January since 1987), predicting a very good year. Indeed, that is just what we got.

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Market Thoughts for February 2020 [Video]

February 4, 2020

The year started with a slight setback, with both U.S. and international markets down. Some of this poor performance was driven by fear over the coronavirus. Although the virus is something to watch, it's not likely to be a long-term risk. Indeed, economic growth in the U.S. has been steady, and business and consumer confidence have improved.

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Appearance on Yahoo Finance's On the Move, February 03, 2020 [Video]

February 4, 2020

Yesterday I appeared on Yahoo Finance’s On the Move to discuss the impact of coronavirus on the market. Listen in to hear more.

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Monday Update: Consumer Confidence, GDP Growth Are Highlights

February 3, 2020

Last week, results came in mixed for the large number of data releases. Highlights included better-than-expected results for two major consumer surveys and fourth-quarter GDP growth. This week, the focus will be on the business side of the economy, with updates on manufacturer and nonmanufacturer confidence, international trade, and employment all on tap.

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The View from the Aisle: Rosie’s Place

January 31, 2020

Here on the blog, Brad often writes about gratitude. The things he gives thanks for range from the seemingly trivial (watching his cats wrestle) to the profound (health, family, and happiness). Often, he mentions that he jots down three things for which he’s grateful every day. In reading these posts, what strikes the strongest chord with me is seeing things through the lens of “getting to” rather than “having to.” It has very much influenced how I try to navigate the intricacies of modern life and the stresses that come along with it. I get to go to work and do something I love. My wife suggested there’s another wrinkle to it and added “celebrate.” As in, I get to go to the gym and celebrate with 30 minutes on the treadmill. Sounds trite, but it helps.

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Certain sections of this commentary contain forward-looking statements that are based on our reasonable expectations, estimates, projections, and assumptions. Forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve certain risks and uncertainties, which are difficult to predict. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Diversification does not assure a profit or protect against loss in declining markets.

The S&P 500 Index is a broad-based measurement of changes in stock market conditions based on the average performance of 500 widely held common stocks. All indices are unmanaged and investors cannot invest directly in an index.

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