The Independent Market Observer

Monday Update: Retail Sales Fall Sharply in February

March 23, 2020

Last week’s updates, which touched on a broad cross section of the economy, mostly showed solid, fundamental improvements during February. That noted, the surprise rate cut by the Fed and a sharp drop in retail sales highlight the effect that the coronavirus will likely have on future reports. This week will be another busy one, with important reports on business and consumer confidence expected to draw the most attention.

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The Coronavirus Pandemic and the Financial Markets

March 20, 2020

We have spent the past couple of days first looking at the coronavirus pandemic itself and then at the likely economic effects. Which brings us to the third part of our discussion: market reactions. Now, we have the context to look at what has happened and think meaningfully about what might happen next.

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Coronavirus Update: March 19, 2020 [Video]

March 19, 2020

Today, I'd like to share my framework for thinking about the coronavirus crisis, focusing on the virus itself, its economic effects, and the market implications. Viewed through this lens, it seems the virus is controllable, as seen in China and South Korea. Further, the widespread panic has been a positive, enabling governments to put effective restrictions in place.

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Assessing the Economic Damage from the Coronavirus Pandemic

March 19, 2020

Yesterday, we talked about how the coronavirus pandemic itself can be brought under control, and how in many countries it already has been. Here in the U.S., we are not there yet, but we can reasonably expect to get there in the next month or so. That is the good news.

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Appearance on Fox Business Network’s The Claman Countdown, March 18, 2020 [Video]

March 19, 2020

What should investors do given the market turbulence created by coronavirus fears? Yesterday, I appeared on Fox Business Network's The Claman Countdown to discuss this and more.

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The Coronavirus Pandemic: A Solvable Problem?

March 18, 2020

Yesterday, we talked about the big picture around the coronavirus crisis: the pandemic itself, the likely economic effects, and, last but certainly not least, the market reactions. Next, I want to start a more detailed discussion of each component. We will deal with the pandemic today, the economy tomorrow, and the markets on Friday. Although the big picture provides valuable context, there is also quite a bit to be gained by diving deeper into each component.

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How to Think About the Coronavirus Pandemic: The Big Picture

March 17, 2020

With everything that is happening in the world, now is a good time to step back and think about where we are and where we might be going. There is a tremendous amount of information available. But what’s missing is a framework for that information that would help clarify the big picture.

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Appearance on Yahoo Finance's On the Move, March 16, 2020 [Video]

March 16, 2020

What do I make of the Fed’s surprise rate cut over the weekend? I discussed this and more today on Yahoo Finance’s On The Move.

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Monday Update: Consumer Confidence Drop Smaller Than Expected

March 16, 2020

Last week was relatively quiet on the economic update front. On an encouraging note, the preliminary consumer confidence report released for March showed a slightly smaller-than-expected drop in sentiment. This week will be busy, with many of the scheduled releases expected to show continued economic growth in February. Going forward, however, we expect to see headwinds due to the escalating nature of the coronavirus pandemic.

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Appearance on CNBC’s Power Lunch, March 13, 2020 [Video]

March 16, 2020

On Friday, I appeared on CNBC’s Power Lunch to discuss the coronavirus, fear, and the market. Listen in to hear more.

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Certain sections of this commentary contain forward-looking statements that are based on our reasonable expectations, estimates, projections, and assumptions. Forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve certain risks and uncertainties, which are difficult to predict. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Diversification does not assure a profit or protect against loss in declining markets.

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