The Independent Market Observer

How to Think About the Coronavirus Pandemic: The Big Picture

March 17, 2020

With everything that is happening in the world, now is a good time to step back and think about where we are and where we might be going. There is a tremendous amount of information available. But what’s missing is a framework for that information that would help clarify the big picture.

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Appearance on Yahoo Finance's On the Move, March 16, 2020 [Video]

March 16, 2020

What do I make of the Fed’s surprise rate cut over the weekend? I discussed this and more today on Yahoo Finance’s On The Move.

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Monday Update: Consumer Confidence Drop Smaller Than Expected

March 16, 2020

Last week was relatively quiet on the economic update front. On an encouraging note, the preliminary consumer confidence report released for March showed a slightly smaller-than-expected drop in sentiment. This week will be busy, with many of the scheduled releases expected to show continued economic growth in February. Going forward, however, we expect to see headwinds due to the escalating nature of the coronavirus pandemic.

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Appearance on CNBC’s Power Lunch, March 13, 2020 [Video]

March 16, 2020

On Friday, I appeared on CNBC’s Power Lunch to discuss the coronavirus, fear, and the market. Listen in to hear more.

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Monthly Market Risk Update: March 2020

March 13, 2020

My colleague Sam Millette, senior investment research analyst on Commonwealth’s Investment Management and Research team, has helped me put together this month’s Market Risk Update. Thanks for the assist, Sam!

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Appearance on Yahoo Finance's The Final Round, March 12, 2020 [Video]

March 13, 2020

Yesterday, I appeared on Yahoo Finance’s The Final Round to discuss recent market declines, including what to expect going forward. Listen in to hear more.

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Where Bear? There Bear!

March 12, 2020

My son has a stuffed bear he got when he was quite small (from Commonwealth, as it happens). We used to play a game where the bear would sneak up on him. “Where bear? There bear!” Well, the bear is now here. We have finally seen the end of the bull market, with the Dow dropping 20 percent from its highs and the S&P 500 following today. We are officially in a bear market, with all that implies. Stock markets around the world are down again today on the news.

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Economic Risk Factor Update: March 2020

March 11, 2020

My colleague Sam Millette, senior investment research analyst on Commonwealth’s Investment Management and Research team, has helped me put together this month’s Economic Risk Factor Update. Thanks for the assist, Sam!

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The 2020 Stock Market Crash

March 10, 2020

In early March, we saw markets drop worldwide. In fact, the 7.5 percent decline on March 9—which, coincidentally, happens to be the 11th anniversary of the bull market—was the largest since 2008. With a total decline of almost 19 percent, in less than a month, this certainly looks like a crash—doesn’t it?

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Monday Update: Signs of Economic Improvement in February

March 9, 2020

Last week’s economic updates showed surprising economic strength in February, highlighted by improving business confidence and an unexpectedly strong February jobs report. In March, confidence figures are likely to decline, due to the global spread of the coronavirus. Nonetheless, before that crisis emerged, the recent updates pointed toward an improving economy poised for faster growth. This week will be relatively quiet on the economic update front. Economists will, however, be closely monitoring the preliminary consumer confidence report set to be released on Friday, which will be our first look at consumer confidence in March.

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The information on this website is intended for informational/educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security or investment product. Please contact your financial professional for more information specific to your situation.

Certain sections of this commentary contain forward-looking statements that are based on our reasonable expectations, estimates, projections, and assumptions. Forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve certain risks and uncertainties, which are difficult to predict. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Diversification does not assure a profit or protect against loss in declining markets.

The S&P 500 Index is a broad-based measurement of changes in stock market conditions based on the average performance of 500 widely held common stocks. All indices are unmanaged and investors cannot invest directly in an index.

The MSCI EAFE (Europe, Australia, Far East) Index is a free float‐adjusted market capitalization index that is designed to measure the equity market performance of developed markets, excluding the U.S. and Canada. The MSCI EAFE Index consists of 21 developed market country indices.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average is computed by summing the prices of the stocks of 30 large companies and then dividing that total by an adjusted value, one which has been adjusted over the years to account for the effects of stock splits on the prices of the 30 companies. Dividends are reinvested to reflect the actual performance of the underlying securities.

The Russell 2000 is a market-capitalization weighted index, with dividends reinvested, that consists of the 2,000 smallest companies within the Russell 3000 Index. It is often used to track the performance of U.S. small market capitalization stocks.

One basis point (bp) is equal to 1/100th of 1 percent, or 0.01 percent.

The VIX (CBOE Volatility Index) measures the market’s expectation of 30-day volatility across a wide range of S&P 500 options.

The forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio divides the current share price of the index by its estimated future earnings.

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