The Independent Market Observer

Brad McMillan, CFA®, CFP®

Brad McMillan, CFA®, CFP®, is managing principal, wealth management, and chief investment officer at Commonwealth. As CIO, Brad chairs the investment committee and is a spokesperson for Commonwealth’s investment divisions. Brad received his BA from Dartmouth College, an MS from MIT, and an MS from Boston College. He has worked as a real estate developer, consultant, and lender; as an investment analyst, manager, and consultant; and as a start-up executive. His professional qualifications include designated membership in the Appraisal Institute, the CFA Institute, and the CAIA Association. He also is a CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER™ practitioner. Brad speaks around the country on investment issues and writes for industry publications, as well as for this blog.
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Recent Posts

RIP General Electric

June 20, 2018

One of the big pieces of news in the financial world today focuses on General Electric (GE). The iconic American conglomerate has been removed from the Dow Jones Industrial Average, and its stock will no longer be included when the index is calculated. It will be replaced by the drugstore chain Walgreens.

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Tariffs and Trade Wars: Part 4

June 19, 2018

As we close out this series on tariffs and trade wars, let’s review what we’ve covered so far.

There is a case to be made for modifying the existing world trade system, and there are systemic imbalances and costs that need to be rectified. That being said, we need to ensure that we maintain as many of the good things about the current system as we can because, despite the costs, the U.S. is actually in a very favorable position overall.

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Monday Update: Inflation and Retail Sales on the Rise

June 18, 2018

Last week was a busy one for economic reports. The week ahead will be a bit slower, although we will get some news on housing.

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Tariffs and Trade Wars: Part 3

June 15, 2018

We closed part 2 of this series with a summary of the benefits of the current system of open trade: peace, prosperity, and, for the U.S., control of the world system. Although this has come at substantial financial and trade cost to the U.S., this cost has been more than offset by the benefits. Indeed, everyone has won from the current system.

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Appearance on CNBC's Power Lunch, June 14, 2018 [Video]

June 14, 2018

Earlier today, I appeared on CNBC's Power Lunch to discuss the Fed’s most recent rate hike and its impact on the markets. Listen in to learn more.

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Tariffs and Trade Wars: Part 2

June 14, 2018

In part 1 of this series, we discussed how, overall, tariffs can create localized benefits (e.g., helping a particular industry), but they do so by imposing higher costs on the rest of the economy. We also discussed the wider implications—primarily that when a country imposes tariffs, there is a real possibility that other countries will retaliate. This leads to a vicious circle that leaves everyone worse off. Economically, tariffs don’t make a lot of sense.

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Tariffs and Trade Wars: Part 1

June 13, 2018

Trade and tariffs just made the front pages in a big way with the confrontation between the U.S. and other countries at the recent G7 summit. Terms like trade war are being thrown around, and Canada (Canada!) is openly threatening retaliation. So, now seems a good time to take a look at what is really happening—and what it might mean for us and our investments.

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Monday Update: Service Sector Confidence Rises, Trade Deficit Down

June 11, 2018

There were only two major economic news releases last week, but the week ahead will be a busy one.

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Monthly Market Risk Update: June 2018

June 8, 2018

Market risks come in three flavors: recession risk, economic shock risk, and risks within the market itself. So, what do these risks look like for June? Let’s take a closer look at the numbers.

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Economic Risk Factor Update: June 2018

June 7, 2018

May’s data improved over an already solid April. Job growth accelerated further, and consumer confidence remained strong. Business confidence also bounced back, taking the trend back to positive territory. Finally, Fed policy continues to be stimulative, which is helpful despite the likely rate increase this month. Overall, the economic data indicates that growth continues and that the recent soft spot may be passing.

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