The Independent Market Observer

Brad McMillan, CFA®, CFP®

Brad McMillan, CFA®, CFP®, is managing principal, wealth management, and chief investment officer at Commonwealth. As CIO, Brad chairs the investment committee and is a spokesperson for Commonwealth’s investment divisions. Brad received his BA from Dartmouth College, an MS from MIT, and an MS from Boston College. He has worked as a real estate developer, consultant, and lender; as an investment analyst, manager, and consultant; and as a start-up executive. His professional qualifications include designated membership in the Appraisal Institute, the CFA Institute, and the CAIA Association. He also is a CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER™ practitioner. Brad speaks around the country on investment issues and writes for industry publications, as well as for this blog.
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Recent Posts

Friday Quick Takes: Jobs, Trade War, and More

July 6, 2018

“There are decades where nothing happens; and there are weeks where decades happen.”

I don’t normally quote Lenin on this blog—or anywhere, for that matter—but this line is just too appropriate today. With everything going on, I thought I would offer some brief comments on subjects that, I admit, deserve—and will get—greater attention. But for now, here are my quick takes.

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A Look Back at the Markets in June and Ahead to July

July 5, 2018

As we begin July, let’s take a look back at the markets in June, plus what to expect in the month ahead.

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Monday Update (on Tuesday): Growth Continues, Signs of Slowing Mount

July 3, 2018

Last week started with some good news on the housing front. This week, we’ll see reports coming in that cover the whole economy.

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Market Thoughts for July 2018 [Video]

July 2, 2018

June was a mixed month, as U.S. markets went down with the Dow and up with the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq. Bond markets pulled back a bit on rising rates. There was also pullback abroad, in both developed and emerging markets. Still, the fundamentals are good, and a step-up in second-quarter growth is expected. Job growth is strong, consumer spending is accelerating, and business investment is solid.

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Q&A with Brad

June 29, 2018

Whether it is in the Comments section of this blog, the Have a Question? form you see on the right, e-mails, or everyday conversations, people ask me a lot of great questions. It’s just the nature of the work I’m in. But since these questions come in from so many different places, I thought it would be useful to accumulate them—and my responses—and share them here for the benefit of all my readers. Today, we have two reader questions, so let’s dive right in.

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What Happens When the Yield Curve Inverts?

June 28, 2018

Recently, I have gotten a couple of questions about the inversion of the yield curve, prompted by media coverage. On the theory that one question means one hundred people would like to know, let’s take a look at this important indicator, what it means, and what it doesn’t mean.

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Some Thoughts on Technology and Risk

June 27, 2018

Today's post is going out a bit later than usual, as I’m experiencing some problems related to technology and distance. You see, I am lucky enough to be at the Commonwealth Leaders Conference, which is taking place on a cruise ship now located in the Gulf of Alaska. It is pretty close to the middle of nowhere from a tech standpoint. Wi-Fi, when we have it, is spotty. It is surprising to me just how much of a difference this makes in my life. My name is Brad, and I have an Internet problem. Something to think about when I return!

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Market Down Again, But Signs Remain Positive

June 26, 2018

Yesterday was a bad day for the U.S. stock market. But is it time to worry yet? The short answer is, “probably not.” “Not” because the economic and earnings fundamentals remain sound. “Probably” because the slow progression of trade worries may be starting to shake market confidence. The longer answer, however, gets more into the details.

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Monday Update: Housing Data Shows Signs of Slowing

June 25, 2018

Last week's economic reports were all about housing, and we’ll get some insight on the consumer in the week ahead.

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China and Technology

June 22, 2018

After our series on tariffs and trade wars, one topic remains that doesn’t really fit into that discussion: China and technology. One of the very real issues that often comes up in trade talks is what the U.S. can or should do about the fact that China is making a deliberate attempt, by hook or by crook, to acquire technology that it can use to compete with the U.S. Surely, this problem has to be considered when we look at trade.

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