The Independent Market Observer

Brad McMillan, CFA®, CFP®

Brad McMillan, CFA®, CFP®, is managing principal, wealth management, and chief investment officer at Commonwealth. As CIO, Brad chairs the investment committee and is a spokesperson for Commonwealth’s investment divisions. Brad received his BA from Dartmouth College, an MS from MIT, and an MS from Boston College. He has worked as a real estate developer, consultant, and lender; as an investment analyst, manager, and consultant; and as a start-up executive. His professional qualifications include designated membership in the Appraisal Institute, the CFA Institute, and the CAIA Association. He also is a CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER™ practitioner. Brad speaks around the country on investment issues and writes for industry publications, as well as for this blog.
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Recent Posts

What Could Take the Market Back Up?

October 24, 2018

We have spent the past couple of days worrying about the market dropping. Indeed, today we have a further decline. This volatility isn’t unexpected, certainly. But the further down we go, the more worried we should be—and the more inevitable further declines look.

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Another Bad Day in the Market: Now What?

October 23, 2018

When I started writing this today, the S&P 500 was down about 2 percent (though it's come back up a bit in the past few hours), giving us another bad day in the market. Overall, we are down approximately 8 percent from the peak. Once again, concerns are rising over whether this is the big one, the repeat of 2008.

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Monday Update: Industrial Production Strong, Retail and Housing Sales Slowing

October 22, 2018

Last week was a busy one for economic news, with a wide range of data from across the economy. This week will give us a final view of housing for the month, as well as whether business investment continues to improve. We’ll also get a preliminary look at how the economy performed in the third quarter.

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Appearance on CNBC's Nightly Business Report, October 18, 2018 [Video]

October 19, 2018

Yesterday, I appeared on CNBC's Nightly Business Report (my segment begins at 4:38) to discuss the global issues weighing on the market, as well as their potential impact on U.S. investors. Listen in to learn more.

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Thinking About October 19, 1987: Black Monday

October 19, 2018

Lots of things happened in 1987. Among others, I graduated from college. But, if you are in the financial industry at all, the mention of 1987 calls only one thing to mind: Black Monday (October 19, 1987), the day the stock market crashed. In many ways, this was the biggest nightmare of many stock investors. So, it is no wonder it continues to cast such a long shadow. In light of the recent market volatility, I think it makes sense to reflect on what happened 31 years ago today and what it might mean for investors today.

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Looking Beyond U.S. Markets

October 18, 2018

I am in the process of writing my speech for Commonwealth’s National Conference in November. I have decided to focus on really understanding what is going on with the trade war and what that might mean for investing. That understanding, of course, requires a fairly deep dive into both what is happening and where the war started.

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Market Volatility: The Real Lesson

October 17, 2018

I don’t get a lot of panicked calls and e-mails when the market melts up, like it did yesterday. When the market rises 2 percent, the sense seems to be that it’s just the universe working out the way it should. But when the market drops 2 percent? Something must be out of whack! And yet, both are signaling the same thing: the markets are struggling to put a price on future uncertainty. When markets bounce around that much, it is because there is real disagreement about what the future could hold and what that means for corporate profits and, therefore, for stock prices.

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What’s Next for the Markets?

October 16, 2018

After declines in the markets last week, the question at the start of this week was whether they would continue. The news from yesterday was, frankly, not all that encouraging. Markets did try to rally, only to fall at the end of the day. Nonetheless, there are reasons to believe that the markets are stabilizing and may even be headed higher over the next couple of weeks.

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Monday Update: Inflation Steady, Confidence Pulls Back

October 15, 2018

Last week was mostly about prices, although we finished with a look at consumer confidence. This is a busy week, with a wide range of data from across the economy.

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Time to Pay Attention to What the Market Is Telling Us

October 12, 2018

We had another bad day yesterday, with markets pulling back even further. This big decline, for the second day in a row, sent fear levels even higher. Overall, the drop so far has been about 7 percent for the S&P 500. This is a big loss over two days, especially by recent standards.

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Certain sections of this commentary contain forward-looking statements that are based on our reasonable expectations, estimates, projections, and assumptions. Forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve certain risks and uncertainties, which are difficult to predict. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Diversification does not assure a profit or protect against loss in declining markets.

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