I am working on my talk for Commonwealth’s upcoming National Conference, all about interest rates in the new world. The tagline is going to be “Less Than Zero.” Yesterday, I got an endorsement (sort of) from the president, who tweeted that the Fed should lower rates to zero or even below. Clearly, I got the hot topic right this year!

Today I appeared on CNBC’s Power Lunch to discuss this year’s IPO market. Listen in to learn more.

My colleague Sam Millette, senior investment research analyst on Commonwealth’s Investment Management and Research team, has helped me put together this month’s Market Risk Update. Thanks for the assist, Sam!

My colleague Sam Millette, senior investment research analyst on Commonwealth’s Investment Management and Research team, has helped me put together this month’s Economic Risk Factor Update. Thanks for the assist, Sam!

I don’t normally link to scary stories in the media. But one in particular has generated a number of questions from advisors, clients, and even employees here at Commonwealth.

August was a tough month pretty much across the board, with politics rocking markets around the world. So, what should we expect for September? Let’s take a closer look.

August was a tough month for markets, with fixed income the only bright spot. There was a lot of volatility, with markets down between 4 percent and 6 percent on three occasions. What drove the declines? Politics. The U.S.-China trade war heated up, and the Fed and the White House sparred over rates. Still, the economy remained solid—with consumer confidence high and strong job growth.

Yesterday, we discussed business confidence and concluded that it is better than the headlines suggest. Today, we are going to look at the even more important level of consumer confidence—and whether it may be considerably weaker than it appears.

Yesterday, I talked about what I am keeping an eye on, business and consumer confidence, and why I think they are important. Today and tomorrow, I want to talk about how I plan to do that.

Business confidence is leading the headlines right now. With the trade war and the general economic slowdown around the world, U.S. business is reported to be suffering. That seems to be true, but is that suffering bad enough to affect the economy as a whole?

All right, going on vacation was a mistake. The market started dropping just before we left and has recovered upon our return. Sorry about that. Now that I am back, though, we can be confident that the market will keep rising. Right? Right?

Maybe not, but the real issue here is not whether the market will keep rising—that is a consequence, not a cause—but whether confidence, which has kept the economy expanding and the market rising, will persist.