This morning, I saw a commentary piece that pointed out we have had 12 record highs for the S&P 500 in the past month. A record is usually a big deal, and I often get calls to comment on what it all means. But I have to admit, I did not realize there had been that many in the past month. So, what does this series of highs mean, if anything?

One of the consistent narratives that has been playing out in the investing world is the death of retail. With Amazon and other online retailers continuing to grow and take market share, the world of brick and mortar has been said to be dying a slow and largely well-deserved death. Sears is the poster child here, with the once dominant retailer collapsing. (In that case, however, Amazon doesn’t seem to be the primary cause.) Other retailers have also taken hit after hit, and their stock prices have generally trended down. This trend is seen as something new and different—and something to worry about. The death of retail!

When you read the papers and watch the news, you won’t see much about economics. With earnings season just about over and with the major economic reports looking a bit better, investors don’t have a lot of data to worry about—at least until the next set of releases. Instead, now we are worrying about politics.

Over the past two days, we have looked at the signs that a recession is coming, going so far as trying to time it to the middle of next year. What we haven’t done is look at perhaps the most important question: how bad will the recession be when it hits? After all, the timing may not matter that much, but whether it’s going to be mild or severe certainly makes a difference.

Yesterday, I discussed how the recent un-inversion of the yield curve suggests a recession is likely in the next year. So, I thought I would extend the same analysis to the other three indicators we follow here on the blog. Looking at one indicator is valuable, but we really need to evaluate all four to see if they align with one another—or not.

I appeared on CNBC's Nightly Business Report (my segment starts at 4:43) on Monday to discuss the industrial sector. Listen in to learn more.

Today, we are going to do some “inside-baseball” analysis around the recent changes in interest rates and what they mean. Normally, I try not to get too far into the weeds here on the blog. But interest rates and the yield curve have gotten a lot of attention, and the recent headlines are not actually all that helpful. So, put on your thinking caps because we’re going to get a bit technical.

Last night, I spoke at a client event for one of our Commonwealth advisors. As usual, it was a great group—thoughtful, interested, full of great questions. And, of course, worried. Worried about politics, worried about the debt and deficit, and, most of all, worried about what all of this means for their kids.

My colleague Sam Millette, senior investment research analyst on Commonwealth’s Investment Management and Research team, has helped me put together this month’s Market Risk Update. Thanks for the assist, Sam!

Is the market trading on fundamentals or politics? I discussed this and more today on Yahoo Finance’s On the Move.