The Independent Market Observer

Brad McMillan, CFA®, CFP®

Brad McMillan, CFA®, CFP®, is managing principal, wealth management, and chief investment officer at Commonwealth. As CIO, Brad chairs the investment committee and is a spokesperson for Commonwealth’s investment divisions. Brad received his BA from Dartmouth College, an MS from MIT, and an MS from Boston College. He has worked as a real estate developer, consultant, and lender; as an investment analyst, manager, and consultant; and as a start-up executive. His professional qualifications include designated membership in the Appraisal Institute, the CFA Institute, and the CAIA Association. He also is a CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER™ practitioner. Brad speaks around the country on investment issues and writes for industry publications, as well as for this blog.
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Recent Posts

Market Thoughts for April 2021 [Video]

April 5, 2021

In March, we saw a strong end to a healthy first quarter for stock markets. Both the Dow and S&P 500 here in the U.S. showed gains, while developed markets abroad showed lower but still positive returns. We also had good news on the economic front. Hiring rebounded, layoffs dropped, and consumer confidence rose to post-pandemic highs.

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Coronavirus Update: April 1, 2021 [Video]

April 1, 2021

Today, I'd like to provide an update on the coronavirus, including the economic and market implications. After several weeks of improvement on the medical front, we’re starting to see modest deterioration as the country reopens. Case counts and positive test rates are back to early March levels, while hospitalizations and death rates have stabilized. While the short-term risks are real, we do have a better outlook for the next two to three months. At that point, between vaccinations and existing exposure, we should be at or close to herd immunity.

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It’s All About Jobs

March 31, 2021

We have had a lot of good economic news recently, including the significant bounce in consumer confidence reported by the Conference Board. Consumer confidence rose by more than 20 percent last month, to the highest level since September, before the third wave. According to that increase, people are feeling much better about the economy and their place in it.

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What Does the Archegos Blowup Mean for the Markets?

March 30, 2021

I wanted to use the title “Leverage, Margin Calls, and Stock Prices, Oh My” here. But I decided to go with the more specific title so readers would actually know what I was taking about. Those are the real themes, though, as the hedge fund/private family office Archegos is simply the latest iteration of an old and sad story.

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Economic Improvement Continues Despite Rising Medical Risks

March 26, 2021

For the first time in several weeks, the big picture on the medical front has gotten worse. Case growth and positive test rates have ticked back up as the economy has reopened. While the change is relatively small so far, it is a reversal of previous improvements and signals that both reopening and the spread of more contagious variants are outpacing the positive effects of vaccinations. Faster spread has therefore moved from a potential risk to an actual one.

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What About SPACs?

March 24, 2021

Today's post was cowritten by Chris Stuart, senior investment research analyst.

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Will Spring Bring Better Economic News?

March 23, 2021

Spring is here! I have been eagerly awaiting the chance to write this post. Mind you, spring started a couple of days ago, astronomically speaking. And, of course, spring started weeks ago in more southern states. But today the sun is shining, the birds are making a heck of a racket, and my son went off to school in shorts. So, it seems fair to call this the first day of spring, at least for me.

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Coronavirus Update: March 19, 2021 [Video]

March 19, 2021

Today, I'd like to provide an update on the coronavirus, including the economic and market implications. The medical situation continues to improve, as the vaccination campaign moves forward. Still, case growth remains above the levels seen between the second and third waves, and positive rates have not improved in weeks. We still have a very real pandemic on our hands.

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What Should We Expect from the Fed?

March 16, 2021

The biggest financial and economic story in recent days has been around interest rates. Inflation worries flared up again with the passage of the most recent federal stimulus bill, on fears that dumping trillions of dollars into the economy would drive demand—and prices—up. Rates followed, with the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note rising from 1.07 percent to a peak of 1.59 percent on March 8. Stock prices, especially for growth stocks, reacted by dropping, as higher rates usually mean lower valuations.

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Markets in an Interesting Place

March 12, 2021

As a reminder, this written update will be followed next week by a video update, and then back to a written post on a weekly basis. Thanks as always for reading and watching.

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The information on this website is intended for informational/educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security or investment product. Please contact your financial professional for more information specific to your situation.

Certain sections of this commentary contain forward-looking statements that are based on our reasonable expectations, estimates, projections, and assumptions. Forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve certain risks and uncertainties, which are difficult to predict. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Diversification does not assure a profit or protect against loss in declining markets.

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