---
title: The Independent Market Observer | Outlook. Opinion. Insight. | Brad McMillan, CFA®, CFP® (32)
description: Brad McMillan, CFA®, CFP®, is managing principal, wealth management, and chief economist at Commonwealth. As chief economist, Brad chairs the investment committee and is a spokesperson for Commonwealth’s investment divisions. Brad received his BA from Dartmouth College, an MS from MIT, and an MS from Boston College. He has worked as a real estate developer, consultant, and lender; as an investment analyst, manager, and consultant; and as a start-up executive. His professional qualifications include designated membership in the Appraisal Institute, the CFA Institute, and the CAIA Association. He also is a CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER™ practitioner. Brad speaks around the country on investment issues and writes for industry publications, as well as for this blog. (32)
---

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## Brad McMillan, CFA®, CFP®

![](https://blog.commonwealth.com/hs-fs/hubfs/McMillan_Brad@2x.png?width=100&name=McMillan_Brad@2x.png)

Brad McMillan, CFA®, CFP®, is managing principal, wealth management, and chief economist at Commonwealth. As chief economist, Brad chairs the investment committee and is a spokesperson for Commonwealth’s investment divisions. Brad received his BA from Dartmouth College, an MS from MIT, and an MS from Boston College. He has worked as a real estate developer, consultant, and lender; as an investment analyst, manager, and consultant; and as a start-up executive. His professional qualifications include designated membership in the Appraisal Institute, the CFA Institute, and the CAIA Association. He also is a CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER™ practitioner. Brad speaks around the country on investment issues and writes for industry publications, as well as for this blog.

Find me on:

[![](https://static.hubspot.com/final/img/common/icons/social/linkedin-24x24.png)](https://www.linkedin.com/in/bradmcmillancfa) [![](https://static.hubspot.com/final/img/common/icons/social/twitter-24x24.png)](https://x.com/BradMcMillanCFA)

### Recent Posts

[![](https://blog.commonwealth.com/hubfs/Rebrand-Blog-Images/IMO-images/Inflation/Inflation-c.jpg)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/is-the-inflation-balloon-close-to-popping)

## [Is the Inflation Balloon Close to Popping?](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/is-the-inflation-balloon-close-to-popping)

September 14, 2021

One of the most urgent and consistent questions I have been getting recently is around inflation. With the headline numbers high—and they are high—the concern is that we are moving back to the 1970s and that inflation will stay at the current 5 percent or run even higher. That conclusion seems reasonable, given the large federal deficit and spending over the past couple of years. When combined with the signs of slowing growth, it could point back to stagflation. The 1970s are calling. Maybe disco will come back as well?

[Continue reading →](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/is-the-inflation-balloon-close-to-popping) [Leave a comment](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/is-the-inflation-balloon-close-to-popping#comments-listing)

[![](https://blog.commonwealth.com/hubfs/Rebrand-Blog-Images/IMO-images/Monthly-Risk/monthly-update-a.jpg)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/monthly-market-risk-update-september-2021)

## [Monthly Market Risk Update: September 2021](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/monthly-market-risk-update-september-2021)

September 9, 2021

*My colleague* [*Sam Millette*](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/author/sam-millette)*, manager, fixed income on Commonwealth’s Investment Management and Research team, has helped me put together this month’s Market Risk Update. Thanks for the assist, Sam!*

[Continue reading →](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/monthly-market-risk-update-september-2021) [Leave a comment](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/monthly-market-risk-update-september-2021#comments-listing)

[![](https://blog.commonwealth.com/hubfs/Rebrand-Blog-Images/IMO-images/Economic-Risk/econRisk-c.jpg)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/economic-risk-factor-update-september-2021)

## [Economic Risk Factor Update: September 2021](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/economic-risk-factor-update-september-2021)

September 8, 2021

*My colleague* [*Sam Millette*](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/author/sam-millette)*, manager, fixed income on Commonwealth’s Investment Management and Research team, has helped me put together this month’s Economic Risk Factor Update. Thanks for the assist, Sam!*

[Continue reading →](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/economic-risk-factor-update-september-2021) [Leave a comment](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/economic-risk-factor-update-september-2021#comments-listing)

[![](https://blog.commonwealth.com/hubfs/Rebrand-Blog-Images/IMO-images/Look-Back-Ahead/look-back-ahead-c.jpg)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/looking-back-at-the-markets-in-august-and-ahead-to-september-2021)

## [Looking Back at the Markets in August and Ahead to September 2021](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/looking-back-at-the-markets-in-august-and-ahead-to-september-2021)

September 2, 2021

August was another great month for the financial markets. Here in the U.S., the markets continued to hit new highs, with the Dow up by 1.5 percent, the S&P up by more than 3 percent, and the Nasdaq up by more than 4 percent. Abroad, developed markets also did well, going up by 1.76 percent. Emerging markets bounced back significantly at month-end with a gain of 2.65 percent.

[Continue reading →](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/looking-back-at-the-markets-in-august-and-ahead-to-september-2021) [Leave a comment](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/looking-back-at-the-markets-in-august-and-ahead-to-september-2021#comments-listing)

[![](https://blog.commonwealth.com/hubfs/945x529_brad.png)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/market-thoughts-for-september-2021-video)

## [Market Thoughts for September 2021 \[Video\]](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/market-thoughts-for-september-2021-video)

September 1, 2021

August was another very good month for the financial markets. In the U.S., both the Nasdaq and the S&P 500 showed material gains, while developed markets also did well. On the medical front, the virus continued its spread. There are signs that the rising medical risks are starting to appear in the data, with consumer confidence dropping significantly in August.

[Continue reading →](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/market-thoughts-for-september-2021-video) [Leave a comment](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/market-thoughts-for-september-2021-video#comments-listing)

[![](https://blog.commonwealth.com/hubfs/Rebrand-Blog-Images/IMO-images/Consumers/Consumers-a.jpg)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/are-consumers-losing-confidence)

## [Are Consumers Losing Confidence?](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/are-consumers-losing-confidence)

August 31, 2021

One of the key indicators I follow is consumer confidence. With more than two-thirds of the economy based on consumer spending, confidence is the key determinant of growth, even more so than jobs. Yes, jobs are important—you can’t spend money if you’re not making it. But to spend the extra money that kicks growth up another notch, you need to have the job *and* feel confident enough to spend.

[Continue reading →](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/are-consumers-losing-confidence) [Leave a comment](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/are-consumers-losing-confidence#comments-listing)

[![](https://blog.commonwealth.com/hubfs/Rebrand-Blog-Images/IMO-images/Economy/econ-b.jpg)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/the-state-of-the-markets)

## [The State of the Markets](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/the-state-of-the-markets)

August 27, 2021

Yesterday, in response to advisor requests, [my post](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/the-state-of-the-economy) summarized some of my high-level thoughts about the state of the economy. To recap my take briefly, the economic risks of the pandemic are largely in the past. The economy is growing, and markets are strong. Given this environment, the risks of governmental action (notably the infrastructure spending bills) and the Fed’s policy accommodations are now bigger worries than the pandemic. In the face of these risks, can our economic growth continue? My base case is that we’re getting closer and closer to normal. So, today, I want to address how we can invest in a growing economy that faces risks of inflation, higher interest rates, and government policy changes.

[Continue reading →](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/the-state-of-the-markets) [Leave a comment](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/the-state-of-the-markets#comments-listing)

[![](https://blog.commonwealth.com/hubfs/Rebrand-Blog-Images/IMO-images/The-Fed/the-fed-a.jpg)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/the-state-of-the-economy)

## [The State of the Economy](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/the-state-of-the-economy)

August 26, 2021

Recently, I’ve received several requests for a high-level overview of the economy. As a blog post, this analysis is necessarily short on details, but I hope it provides a big-picture look at what I see happening in the current economic and market environment.

[Continue reading →](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/the-state-of-the-economy) [Leave a comment](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/the-state-of-the-economy#comments-listing)

[![](https://blog.commonwealth.com/hubfs/Rebrand-Blog-Images/IMO-images/Healthcare/healthcare-b.jpg)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/despite-delta-variant-risks-economy-remains-strong)

## [Despite Delta Variant Risks, Economy Remains Strong](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/despite-delta-variant-risks-economy-remains-strong)

August 25, 2021

*As I wrote in [yesterday’s post](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/on-the-road-again), we seem to have moved past the pandemic in many ways, but I realized it has been some time since I did an update on what that means. So here we are. Things are bad from a medical perspective, and the big question is whether medical conditions will continue to worsen to the point they affect the economy and markets. Right now, that does not look likely. I will be keeping an eye on the situation, however, and do another update when the answer becomes clearer.*

[Continue reading →](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/despite-delta-variant-risks-economy-remains-strong) [Leave a comment](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/despite-delta-variant-risks-economy-remains-strong#comments-listing)

[![](https://blog.commonwealth.com/hubfs/Rebrand-Blog-Images/IMO-images/Look-Back-Ahead/look-back-ahead-c.jpg)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/on-the-road-again)

## [On the Road Again](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/on-the-road-again)

August 24, 2021

This week, I am at the first Commonwealth conference (or, indeed, any conference) since March 2020. We are being very cautious—events are outdoors, and everyone was tested on arrival. But it is the first real large face-to-face event since then.

[Continue reading →](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/on-the-road-again) [Leave a comment](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/on-the-road-again#comments-listing)

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- [December 2015 (24)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2015/12)
- [November 2015 (22)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2015/11)
- [October 2015 (25)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2015/10)
- [September 2015 (22)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2015/09)
- [August 2015 (23)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2015/08)
- [July 2015 (25)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2015/07)
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- [May 2015 (23)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2015/05)
- [April 2015 (23)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2015/04)
- [March 2015 (23)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2015/03)
- [February 2015 (22)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2015/02)
- [January 2015 (21)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2015/01)
- [December 2014 (24)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2014/12)
- [November 2014 (19)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2014/11)
- [October 2014 (26)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2014/10)
- [September 2014 (22)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2014/09)
- [August 2014 (24)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2014/08)
- [July 2014 (24)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2014/07)
- [June 2014 (24)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2014/06)
- [May 2014 (25)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2014/05)
- [April 2014 (23)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2014/04)
- [March 2014 (24)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2014/03)
- [February 2014 (20)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2014/02)
- [January 2014 (23)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2014/01)
- [December 2013 (23)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2013/12)
- [November 2013 (24)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2013/11)
- [October 2013 (27)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2013/10)
- [September 2013 (23)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2013/09)
- [August 2013 (26)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2013/08)
- [July 2013 (23)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2013/07)
- [June 2013 (22)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2013/06)
- [May 2013 (26)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2013/05)
- [April 2013 (24)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2013/04)
- [March 2013 (24)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2013/03)
- [February 2013 (20)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2013/02)
- [January 2013 (30)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2013/01)
- [December 2012 (34)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2012/12)
- [November 2012 (39)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2012/11)
- [October 2012 (42)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2012/10)
- [September 2012 (36)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2012/09)
- [August 2012 (30)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2012/08)
- [July 2012 (31)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2012/07)
- [June 2012 (18)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2012/06)

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Certain sections of this commentary contain forward-looking statements that are based on our reasonable expectations, estimates, projections, and assumptions. Forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve certain risks and uncertainties, which are difficult to predict. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Diversification does not assure a profit or protect against loss in declining markets.

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The Dow Jones Industrial Average is computed by summing the prices of the stocks of 30 large companies and then dividing that total by an adjusted value, one which has been adjusted over the years to account for the effects of stock splits on the prices of the 30 companies. Dividends are reinvested to reflect the actual performance of the underlying securities.

The Russell 2000 is a market-capitalization weighted index, with dividends reinvested, that consists of the 2,000 smallest companies within the Russell 3000 Index. It is often used to track the performance of U.S. small market capitalization stocks.

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The VIX (CBOE Volatility Index) measures the market’s expectation of 30-day volatility across a wide range of S&P 500 options.

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