The Independent Market Observer

Brad McMillan, CFA®, CFP®

Brad McMillan, CFA®, CFP®, is managing principal, wealth management, and chief investment officer at Commonwealth. As CIO, Brad chairs the investment committee and is a spokesperson for Commonwealth’s investment divisions. Brad received his BA from Dartmouth College, an MS from MIT, and an MS from Boston College. He has worked as a real estate developer, consultant, and lender; as an investment analyst, manager, and consultant; and as a start-up executive. His professional qualifications include designated membership in the Appraisal Institute, the CFA Institute, and the CAIA Association. He also is a CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER™ practitioner. Brad speaks around the country on investment issues and writes for industry publications, as well as for this blog.
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Recent Posts

Japan: The Outside View

January 21, 2015

Now that we've looked at China and Europe, it’s time to examine Japan’s economic future.

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Europe: The Outside View

January 20, 2015

Today, we’ll continue the “outside view” series on international investing with a look at the eurozone.

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Time to Worry About the Stock Market?

January 16, 2015

Ever since Christmas, the stock market has been trending downward, with the slide getting worse over the past week or so.

As I’ve mentioned multiple times, I generally don’t start to pay attention until we hit the 200-day moving average (which is now at around 1,966 for the S&P 500). But a couple of things have caught my notice lately.

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China: The Outside View

January 15, 2015

Let’s take the factors we discussed yesterday and apply them to the countries that matter, starting with China.

The largest economy outside the U.S., China is approaching several challenges, the most urgent of which is the need to shift economic growth away from infrastructure and investment and toward consumption. Let’s examine the data and see what an outside view suggests for investors.

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Three Ways to Assess a Country's Economic Future

January 14, 2015

Now that we’ve determined which countries are globally relevant, from an economic point of view, we need to decide which factors really matter in how those countries will fare over the next five years.

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Which Countries Matter?

January 13, 2015

Building on yesterday’s post, today we’ll start to look at what a global perspective means in an investment context. Of course, I know perfectly well that all countries matter; what I’m getting at in the headline is “Which countries are economically significant on a global scale?”

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Taking the Global View

January 12, 2015

This week, I'm at Commonwealth’s Chairman’s Retreat in Miami, a place that quickly reminds you that the world is much bigger than the U.S. As it happens, my talk here will focus on the rest of the worldand how, exactly, the U.S. fits into it.

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Jobs Report: Amid Good News, a Darker Cloud

January 9, 2015

The December jobs report came in this morning, with very good results overall.

  • The total number of jobs was up by 252,000, beating expectations of 240,000.
  • This continues the streak of months with 200,000-plus jobs created, the longest since the mid-1990s.
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Oil Prices, Interest Rates, and Europe

January 8, 2015

I wrote yesterday that lower interest rates and oil prices shouldn’t be a major problem here in the U.S. But the rates, at least, could be symptomatic of real problems in Europe and Japan.

With the recent report that consumer price inflation dropped below 0 percent for the eurozone, it’s worth taking a closer look at what Europe is facing, and what lower interest rates there mean.

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Do Falling Oil Prices and Interest Rates Spell Trouble?

January 7, 2015

I’m a big believer in the lessons of history and, as regular readers know, always deeply skeptical of claims that “things are different this time.” So I can appreciate the arguments we’re hearing today that falling oil prices and interest rates signal trouble ahead.

I'm just not sure the U.S. is in a position to worry.

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The information on this website is intended for informational/educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security or investment product. Please contact your financial professional for more information specific to your situation.

Certain sections of this commentary contain forward-looking statements that are based on our reasonable expectations, estimates, projections, and assumptions. Forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve certain risks and uncertainties, which are difficult to predict. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Diversification does not assure a profit or protect against loss in declining markets.

The S&P 500 Index is a broad-based measurement of changes in stock market conditions based on the average performance of 500 widely held common stocks. All indices are unmanaged and investors cannot invest directly in an index.

The MSCI EAFE (Europe, Australia, Far East) Index is a free float‐adjusted market capitalization index that is designed to measure the equity market performance of developed markets, excluding the U.S. and Canada. The MSCI EAFE Index consists of 21 developed market country indices.

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