The headline this morning, of course, is yesterday’s stock market decline—a loss of almost 2 percent for the S&P 500 on the heels of a weak December. There’s been a great deal of commentary pointing out that the market dropped both the last day of December and the first day of January, which means . . . what?

Not much, I would argue.

In my latest Market Thoughts video, I discuss the U.S. and global economic recoveries, the falling price of oil, and the strength of the U.S. dollar. 

Once again, it’s time for our monthly update on risk factors that have proven to be good indicators of economic trouble ahead. As expected, the data hasn’t changed much from last month—it remains positive in almost all areas and has continued to improve in many cases—but it’s still important to keep an eye on things.

As we enter a new year, though, the economic forecast remains good. 

This post was a popular read in October, so I’m rerunning it as a reminder that what’s good for Americans’ wallets in the short term can also be good for our economy in the long term.

Some time ago, I wrote that the changing supply-and-demand picture for oil would lead to further price declines. Well, I was right in terms of direction but wrong on timing—it’s happened much faster than I expected.

This post originally appeared about a year ago, in response to turbulence in emerging markets and a corresponding decline in U.S. markets.

Portfolio managers have several standby risk-reduction strategies they rely on—diversified asset allocation, regular rebalancing, and the occasional market timing tactic—to guard against large drawdowns. But do they really work? What are the potential advantages and disadvantages of these strategies?

This post previously appeared in mid-2013, but given the Fed’s ongoing monetary policies over the last few years, and the recent volatility in the currency markets, it makes sense to revisit today.

In my role as chief investment officer at an independent broker/dealer–RIA, I often receive questions from advisors, their clients, and the media about the potential for a dollar collapse and, more important, what currency would replace the dollar in that (in my belief) unlikely event.

Here's a post that originally appeared in 2013 but is worth revisiting. 

In my recent post on the relative strength and weakness of various currencies, I didn't address one big question: what determines a currency's value? Is there, in fact, a “right answer” as to the value of each currency?

As with many economic questions, there are several right answers, depending on how you look at it.

As 2014 draws to a close, it's time for my traditional Christmas post. Best wishes to you and yours this holiday.

I have always loved Christmas. But as I grew older, I seemed to lose much of the spirit. Now that I have a six-year-old son—who is wrestling with the stress of being good under the eye of the “Elf on the Shelf,” guessing about presents under the tree, and baking cookies with his mom—I find myself recovering much of the Christmas spirit I had lost.

The holidays are always a good time to reflect on the many things we have to be grateful for. As we settle in for a family celebration, here’s my list.

Learn why I told CNBC Worldwide Exchange that I think there’s going to be an accelerated economic recovery in an interview today, December 23.