The Independent Market Observer

Brad McMillan, CFA®, CFP®

Brad McMillan, CFA®, CFP®, is managing principal, wealth management, and chief investment officer at Commonwealth. As CIO, Brad chairs the investment committee and is a spokesperson for Commonwealth’s investment divisions. Brad received his BA from Dartmouth College, an MS from MIT, and an MS from Boston College. He has worked as a real estate developer, consultant, and lender; as an investment analyst, manager, and consultant; and as a start-up executive. His professional qualifications include designated membership in the Appraisal Institute, the CFA Institute, and the CAIA Association. He also is a CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER™ practitioner. Brad speaks around the country on investment issues and writes for industry publications, as well as for this blog.
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Recent Posts

The Role of Bonds in Portfolios Today

March 3, 2015

I am at the Commonwealth Leaders Conference this week, at one of the most beautiful properties I have ever seen. So, of course, I am sitting in a conference room listening to economic presentations. But I’m okay with that.

One of the great things about conferences like this one is that they offer the opportunity to listen to a group of sponsors present some of their most compelling investing ideas. I heard a very interesting point this morning that I’ve noted previously but not paid sufficient attention to: The return from bonds (in aggregate) is almost always very close to the initial yield.

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Ways to Think About Net Neutrality

March 2, 2015

The issue of “net neutrality” falls into the “boring but important” category that most of us normally ignore. Along with solar energy subsidies, social security wage bases, and other recondite things, it’s not visible every day but, nevertheless, does and will affect our lives.

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Negative Interest Rates in Europe

February 27, 2015

Lost in the hand-wringing over whether, when, and how quickly the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates, something very interesting is happening in the rest of the world.

In many countries in Europe—including, for the first time, Germanyinterest rates have gone negative.

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The Hidden Hand of Inflation

February 26, 2015

One of the coolest talks I’ve ever seen at a conference was by a professional pickpocket named Apollo Robbins. (You can see his TED talk here.) Watching someone steal wallets, watches, and even glasses from people—on stage, in full view of everyone, and after warning the victim what was about to happen—redefined my idea of how our perceptions work.

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Greece and the Minsky Moment

February 25, 2015

Over the weekend, we saw one of the major risk factors in the world take a step back from the brink. Greece and Germany essentially agreed to disagree for the next couple of months, giving the Greeks enough rope to either weave a ladder down (the Greek version) or hang themselves (the German version).

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Will She or Won’t She? Janet Yellen and Interest Rates

February 24, 2015

Janet YellenAll eyes (at least in the economics world) are on Janet Yellen today as she sits down to update Congress on what the Federal Reserve is doing.

What will she say? When are rates going up?

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The Outside View: The U.S. Labor Market

February 23, 2015

I’ve maintained for some time that the U.S. labor market is doing very well. Although it's too soon to call it a "boom," that isn’t out of the question given job-creation levels unseen since the mid-1990s and a drop in the unemployment rate back to normal levels.

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Bubble Trouble?

February 20, 2015

I wrote yesterday about gaps opening up in the stock market, and how the tech space in particular is starting to look a lot like a bubble.

Among other things, I mentioned that the stock market isn’t in a bubble yet because companies are making money. Later in the day, though, I saw a story pointing out that 71 percent of companies that went public last year were unprofitable, the highest level since 2000 (when 80 percent weren't making money).

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Are We in Tech Bubble Territory?

February 19, 2015

A headline on CNBC yesterday morning caught my eye: “Nasdaq back to bubble highs.” What it meant, of course, was that the Nasdaq stock index is approaching the levels of 2000. What it said, or at least what I read, was that the tech market is back in a bubble.

I have to admit, I probably interpreted it that way because that’s what I have been thinking for some time.

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Book Review: “Flashpoints,” by George Friedman

February 18, 2015

As I’ve noted over the past couple of days, Europe is back in the headlines. The confrontation between Greece and Germany has once again captured the world’s attention with the real prospect that the eurozone could break down.

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