Last week’s economic news was discouraging, with weak headline numbers and generally weak details. Nonetheless, the data points more toward continued slow growth, not a collapse.
Last week’s economic news was discouraging, with weak headline numbers and generally weak details. Nonetheless, the data points more toward continued slow growth, not a collapse.
March 24, 2016
Two of the big economic stories—interest rates and the stock market—came together in the aftermath of the most recent Federal Reserve meeting. The Fed opted to keep rates where they are (not a surprise), but the statement and Janet Yellen’s press conference were unexpectedly dovish, suggesting that rates are likely to stay much lower than the Fed had previously indicated. The expectation dropped from four increases in 2016 to just two, which surprised and encouraged the stock market.
March 23, 2016
Yesterday, we concluded that the recent decline in money velocity is due to the money supply increasing faster than economic growth, rather than a collapse in growth itself. So, at worst, slower money velocity is a symptom of potential trouble rather than a cause.
Today, let’s consider another side of the issue: is the fact that growth in the money supply exceeds that of the economy itself either a symptom or cause of future economic trouble?
March 22, 2016
Recently, concerns about the velocity of money have resurfaced. Several readers have asked whether declining money velocity presages a crash, a recession, or something equally bad. It’s a fair question. As with many such issues, though, we’ve been down this road before several years ago. Low money velocity didn’t mean problems then, and it shouldn’t mean problems now.
March 21, 2016
Last week’s news wasn’t particularly good, but neither was it particularly worrisome. Economic reports were mixed, with weak headline numbers supported by better details and trends.
Overall, growth remains slow and steady, despite the lingering slowdown from the end of last year.
March 18, 2016
Today’s topic comes from a reader question that underlines, very succinctly, the economic event people dread most. We talk about the stock market, we talk about the Great Recession, but the real fear is that we are in, or about to enter, a repeat of the Great Depression—and that we won’t be able to get out of it.
March 18, 2016
Is the Fed behind the curve on global risk? That's part of what I talked about yesterday during an appearance on CNBC's Power Lunch. I also spoke with program co-anchor Brian Sullivan about the markets and stock opportunities.
March 17, 2016
Student loan debt has increased dramatically in recent years, and as graduates reportedly struggle to find jobs, there's growing concern about the role these loans might play in the next financial crisis. The fear is that a systemic default could rock the financial system, much as subprime mortgage defaults did.
Do we really have a systemic problem on our hands? And just how great is the risk? Let’s take a look at the underlying data.
March 16, 2016
I wrote the other day about the very real chance of an economic boom over the next couple of years, not as a prediction but as a way of considering possibilities. Today, let's reverse course and consider the possibility of a recession.
March 15, 2016
The news here in the U.S. is all about the election. In Europe, it’s all about the migrant crisis and the politics surrounding it, at both the national and EU levels.
In many ways, the U.S. election and those in European countries boil down to the same thing: the conflict between the nation—defined as the people who “belong” there—and those who don’t belong.
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