The Independent Market Observer

Brad McMillan, CFA®, CFP®

Brad McMillan, CFA®, CFP®, is managing principal, wealth management, and chief investment officer at Commonwealth. As CIO, Brad chairs the investment committee and is a spokesperson for Commonwealth’s investment divisions. Brad received his BA from Dartmouth College, an MS from MIT, and an MS from Boston College. He has worked as a real estate developer, consultant, and lender; as an investment analyst, manager, and consultant; and as a start-up executive. His professional qualifications include designated membership in the Appraisal Institute, the CFA Institute, and the CAIA Association. He also is a CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER™ practitioner. Brad speaks around the country on investment issues and writes for industry publications, as well as for this blog.
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Recent Posts

Monday Update: Despite Disappointing News, Slow Growth Should Continue

March 28, 2016

Last week’s economic news was discouraging, with weak headline numbers and generally weak details. Nonetheless, the data points more toward continued slow growth, not a collapse.

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Interest Rates: Lower for Longer, or Faster and Farther?

March 24, 2016

Two of the big economic stories—interest rates and the stock market—came together in the aftermath of the most recent Federal Reserve meeting. The Fed opted to keep rates where they are (not a surprise), but the statement and Janet Yellen’s press conference were unexpectedly dovish, suggesting that rates are likely to stay much lower than the Fed had previously indicated. The expectation dropped from four increases in 2016 to just two, which surprised and encouraged the stock market.

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The Growing Money Supply—Not a Risk

March 23, 2016


Yesterday, we concluded that the recent decline in money velocity is due to the money supply increasing faster than economic growth, rather than a collapse in growth itself. So, at worst, slower money velocity is a symptom of potential trouble rather than a cause.

Today, let’s consider another side of the issue: is the fact that growth in the money supply exceeds that of the economy itself either a symptom or cause of future economic trouble?

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The Velocity of Money: Safe at Any Speed?

March 22, 2016

Recently, concerns about the velocity of money have resurfaced. Several readers have asked whether declining money velocity presages a crash, a recession, or something equally bad. It’s a fair question. As with many such issues, though, we’ve been down this road before several years ago. Low money velocity didn’t mean problems then, and it shouldn’t mean problems now.

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Monday Update: A Mixed Bag for Economic News

March 21, 2016

Last week’s news wasn’t particularly good, but neither was it particularly worrisome. Economic reports were mixed, with weak headline numbers supported by better details and trends.

Overall, growth remains slow and steady, despite the lingering slowdown from the end of last year.

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Will We Have a Depression?

March 18, 2016

Today’s topic comes from a reader question that underlines, very succinctly, the economic event people dread most. We talk about the stock market, we talk about the Great Recession, but the real fear is that we are in, or about to enter, a repeat of the Great Depression—and that we won’t be able to get out of it.

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Appearance on CNBC's Power Lunch, March 17, 2016 [Video]

March 18, 2016

Is the Fed behind the curve on global risk? That's part of what I talked about yesterday during an appearance on CNBC's Power Lunch. I also spoke with program co-anchor Brian Sullivan about the markets and stock opportunities.

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The Student Loan Problem (Or Is It?)

March 17, 2016

Student loan debt has increased dramatically in recent years, and as graduates reportedly struggle to find jobs, there's growing concern about the role these loans might play in the next financial crisis. The fear is that a systemic default could rock the financial system, much as subprime mortgage defaults did.

Do we really have a systemic problem on our hands? And just how great is the risk? Let’s take a look at the underlying data.

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How Likely Is a Recession?

March 16, 2016

I wrote the other day about the very real chance of an economic boom over the next couple of years, not as a prediction but as a way of considering possibilities. Today, let's reverse course and consider the possibility of a recession.

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Changing Political Trends: The U.S. and Europe

March 15, 2016


The news here in the U.S. is all about the election. In Europe, it’s all about the migrant crisis and the politics surrounding it, at both the national and EU levels.

In many ways, the U.S. election and those in European countries boil down to the same thing: the conflict between the nation—defined as the people who “belong” thereand those who don’t belong.

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