The Independent Market Observer

Brad McMillan, CFA®, CFP®

Brad McMillan, CFA®, CFP®, is managing principal, wealth management, and chief investment officer at Commonwealth. As CIO, Brad chairs the investment committee and is a spokesperson for Commonwealth’s investment divisions. Brad received his BA from Dartmouth College, an MS from MIT, and an MS from Boston College. He has worked as a real estate developer, consultant, and lender; as an investment analyst, manager, and consultant; and as a start-up executive. His professional qualifications include designated membership in the Appraisal Institute, the CFA Institute, and the CAIA Association. He also is a CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER™ practitioner. Brad speaks around the country on investment issues and writes for industry publications, as well as for this blog.
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Recent Posts

Market Thoughts for November 2016 [Video]

November 2, 2016

As expected, October was a tough month for markets, as uncertainty surrounding the upcoming election and the future of interest rates continued to rattle investors.

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Election Countdown: One Week to Go

November 1, 2016

A few weeks ago, I wrote a piece on what the election means for investors’ portfolios. Longer term, the answer was not much. Shorter term, there’s potential for market volatility, but the fundamental fact is that the U.S. economy should continue to grow, and financial markets—and investors—should continue to benefit from that growth.

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Monday Update: Amid Disappointing Data, Economy Still Growing

October 31, 2016

Last week’s economic data was a mixed bag, focusing mostly on the consumer but also touching on business and the economy as a whole.

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Strong GDP Report: Treat or Trick?

October 28, 2016

This is the season of ghosts and goblins, scary monsters, and small children roaming around in packs to loot the neighborhood of candy. In other words, it’s very much like the typical investment environment, with everyone looking to get something sweet but nervous about what might leap out of the bushes.

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The Employment Boom Gets Louder

October 27, 2016

After taking a look at the bright side yesterday, more data has come across my desk that confirms just how reasonable (but not, of course, certain) that perspective is. One data point in particular puts some direct context around the reasons for optimism.

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Reasons to Be Cheerful About the Market

October 26, 2016

Yesterday, I wrote about the stock market risks that the AT&T/Time Warner merger might be signaling. Each month, I review market risks as suggested by several other key metrics. And over the last year or so, I’ve been giving a presentation to investors on the causal factors behind a sustained bear market.

Overall, my commentary on the markets has been decidedly risk-centric.

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What Does the AT&T/Time Warner Merger Mean for the Market?

October 25, 2016

There have been a lot of headlines in the past couple of days about the proposed mega-merger between AT&T and Time Warner. In fact, I was on CNBC yesterday discussing it. At $85 billion, this would be the sixth-largest merger of all time, so it is indeed a big deal. Does it have any larger meaning, though?

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Appearance on CNBC's Power Lunch, October 24, 2016 [Video]

October 25, 2016

Do big deals signal a market peak? Yesterday afternoon, I was on CNBC’s Power Lunch offering thoughts on the market amid the recent AT&T and Time Warner merger. 

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Monday Update: Industry Does Better as Housing Slows

October 24, 2016

Last week’s reports covered a wide range of the economy.

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What It Would Take to Rig the U.S. Election

October 21, 2016

The headlines this week are all about Donald Trump’s refusal to accept his potential defeat in the U.S. presidential race. He has reserved the right to contest the results of the election, doubling down on his claims that the process is rigged. Although this is the first time the issue has arisen in the presidential forum, claims of data rigging have been quite common in recent years.

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The information on this website is intended for informational/educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security or investment product. Please contact your financial professional for more information specific to your situation.

Certain sections of this commentary contain forward-looking statements that are based on our reasonable expectations, estimates, projections, and assumptions. Forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve certain risks and uncertainties, which are difficult to predict. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Diversification does not assure a profit or protect against loss in declining markets.

The S&P 500 Index is a broad-based measurement of changes in stock market conditions based on the average performance of 500 widely held common stocks. All indices are unmanaged and investors cannot invest directly in an index.

The MSCI EAFE (Europe, Australia, Far East) Index is a free float‐adjusted market capitalization index that is designed to measure the equity market performance of developed markets, excluding the U.S. and Canada. The MSCI EAFE Index consists of 21 developed market country indices.

One basis point (bp) is equal to 1/100th of 1 percent, or 0.01 percent.

The VIX (CBOE Volatility Index) measures the market’s expectation of 30-day volatility across a wide range of S&P 500 options.

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