The data for May was mixed. The weak areas—in employment and interest rates—suggest that we might be approaching the end of the recovery cycle. On the other hand, both consumer and business confidence remained high in May, suggesting that the end is likely to be a ways away. Although the data bears monitoring, all of our measures remain in green-light territory, supported by the strength in April’s reports.

Last week’s data was mixed, with some strong areas offset by areas of weakness. Looking at the big picture, growth is likely to continue and even accelerate over the next couple of quarters. Still, the economy is starting to hit its limits, particularly in employment.

May was a good month, with financial markets around the world rising and strong gains in the U.S. Still, we’ve had political and economic concerns, with the first quarter of the year being quite slow. But the data in May suggests this slowdown was temporary: Jobs came back, consumer spending was up, and consumer confidence remained high. We also saw growth in business investment.

Now that conference season is done, over the next week or so, I plan to share some of the thoughts I have been passing along to Commonwealth’s advisors. I will start today with the title of the presentation I gave at a number of conferences this spring—“1999 v2.0?”—and explain why I chose it.

Spring conference season is over. I’m back at the office and happy to be here. Rather than relaxing, however, I am now wrestling with my next big project: preparing an outlook for the second half of the year. What will happen? And why?

Based on the headlines, last week’s data was disappointing. But the details were more positive, leaving conditions pretty much as expected. In addition, despite the weak current results, previous months generally turned out better than initially reported and were revised upwards. Plus, long-term trends remain positive. So, while not a great month overall, it was better than it first looked for these data points.

One of the stories that has moved back into public view is bitcoin. With recent price spikes, interest in bitcoin has spiked as well, as investors try to get in on what looks like the latest hot thing. In fact, the price has more than doubled this year and has gone parabolic in recent weeks: up from about $1,000 in March to over $2,000 recently. What’s going on?

Yesterday, I talked about the problems that have led to the current surge of populism and ended with a link to a paper discussing the connection between conventional economic policies and political populism. Today, I will offer a look at what this connection might mean for politics and policies in the future and, of course, the impact for our investments.

There’s a lot of political turmoil around the world—here in the U.S. certainly, but also in Europe, Asia, and the Middle East. Much of it seems to involve at least some rise in populist ideas. I’ve been doing a lot of reading and thinking, trying to get a sense of the big picture, where these trends are coming from, and where they might be taking us. Today, I’m sharing my thoughts, along with a couple of white papers that I found both interesting and helpful.

Last week’s data was generally positive, with housing sentiment rising even further and industrial production posting a surprisingly large gain. Although there were weak points—multifamily construction is slowing—growth is broad based and may be accelerating. Overall, the results remain positive looking forward.