The Independent Market Observer

Brad McMillan, CFA®, CFP®

Brad McMillan, CFA®, CFP®, is managing principal, wealth management, and chief investment officer at Commonwealth. As CIO, Brad chairs the investment committee and is a spokesperson for Commonwealth’s investment divisions. Brad received his BA from Dartmouth College, an MS from MIT, and an MS from Boston College. He has worked as a real estate developer, consultant, and lender; as an investment analyst, manager, and consultant; and as a start-up executive. His professional qualifications include designated membership in the Appraisal Institute, the CFA Institute, and the CAIA Association. He also is a CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER™ practitioner. Brad speaks around the country on investment issues and writes for industry publications, as well as for this blog.
Find me on:

Recent Posts

Appearance on CNBC's Trading Nation, June 15, 2017 [Video]

June 16, 2017

Is there a glaring resemblance between the years 2017 and 1999? Yesterday, I appeared on CNBC’s Trading Nation, with host Brian Sullivan, to discuss the similarities I see between 1999 and 2017 in terms of five key economic indicators.

Continue reading → Leave a comment

If 2017 = 1999, Does 2018 = 2000?

June 15, 2017

In yesterday’s post, we investigated whether 2017 is similar to 1999—and decided that it is. This leads us to the next obvious question: will 2018 look like 2000? And what would that actually mean?

Continue reading → Leave a comment

1999 v2.0: How Similar Are 1999 and 2017?

June 14, 2017

When I look at the current economic and market environment, I think it shares a lot in common with 1999. The tech industry is booming, unemployment is low, consumer and business confidence are high, and investors are very complacent. But just how similar are 1999 and 2017? To get a better sense, I decided to do a detailed economic review. So, without further ado, let’s set the wayback machine to 1999.

Continue reading → Leave a comment

Appearance on CNBC's Power Lunch, June 13, 2017 [Video]

June 14, 2017

What are market expectations for the rest of the year? Yesterday, I appeared on CNBC's Power Lunch alongside senior contributor Larry Kudlow, discussing the impact of the Trump administration on the economy with hosts Becky Quick, Brian Sullivan, and Steve Liesman.

Continue reading → Leave a comment

Appearance on TheStreet, June 13, 2017 [Video]

June 13, 2017

Will the Federal Reserve continue its rate hike policy? Earlier today, I visited Scott Gamm on the set of TheStreet TV to discuss the Fed's next move, plus why I think the markets can go higher despite a significant technology selloff.

Continue reading → Leave a comment

Some Thoughts on the Fed and Recent Tech Stock Performance

June 13, 2017

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) kicks off its regular meeting today. Markets expect a rate hike to be announced on Wednesday. What I’m really interested in, though, is what the Fed plans to do about rates for the rest of the year, as well as how it intends to reduce its balance sheet.

Continue reading → Leave a comment

Monday Update: Service Sector Down, Remains Healthy

June 12, 2017

Last week was quite slow from an economic news standpoint, but things will pick up in the week ahead.

Continue reading → Leave a comment

From Super Thursday to Freaky Friday: Why Are Markets Rising?

June 9, 2017

Well that was unusual. After all the concern around yesterday’s events, two of the three turned out to be even more disruptive than expected. The British election resulted in a hung parliament, substantially increasing political uncertainty, and former FBI Director Comey’s testimony was every bit as potentially concerning for the White House as had been anticipated. Yet the markets are up today pretty much across the board. What’s going on?

Continue reading → Leave a comment

Super Thursday: What It Means (and What It Doesn’t)

June 8, 2017

Today is a big day on the current events front, so much so that I’ve seen it referred to as “Super Thursday.” We have the British election; the meeting of the European Central Bank (ECB), which will determine the course of monetary policy; and, closer to home, the testimony of former FBI Director James Comey. I've spent a lot of time recently discussing these events, both individually and collectively, and what they could mean for the U.S. economy and markets. On reflection, they provide a good example of how investors spend quite a bit of time focusing on things that do not really matter—and ignore things that do. But more on that later.

Continue reading → Leave a comment

Monthly Market Risk Update: June 2017

June 7, 2017

I have revamped the monthly market risk update this month to incorporate a wider range of factors and, I hope, a more useful presentation style. My economic risk factor update seems to have wide appeal, so I am going to use the same traffic light system here, as well as incorporate some economic metrics outside the market.

Continue reading → Leave a comment

Subscribe via Email

AI_Community_Podcast_Thumb - 1

 

Episode 8
June 18, 2025

Episode 7
May 14, 2025

Episode 6
April 23, 2025

Episode 5
March 12, 2025

More


Hot Topics



New Call-to-action

Archives

see all

Subscribe


Disclosure

The information on this website is intended for informational/educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security or investment product. Please contact your financial professional for more information specific to your situation.

Certain sections of this commentary contain forward-looking statements that are based on our reasonable expectations, estimates, projections, and assumptions. Forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve certain risks and uncertainties, which are difficult to predict. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Diversification does not assure a profit or protect against loss in declining markets.

The S&P 500 Index is a broad-based measurement of changes in stock market conditions based on the average performance of 500 widely held common stocks. All indices are unmanaged and investors cannot invest directly in an index.

The MSCI EAFE (Europe, Australia, Far East) Index is a free float‐adjusted market capitalization index that is designed to measure the equity market performance of developed markets, excluding the U.S. and Canada. The MSCI EAFE Index consists of 21 developed market country indices.

One basis point (bp) is equal to 1/100th of 1 percent, or 0.01 percent.

The VIX (CBOE Volatility Index) measures the market’s expectation of 30-day volatility across a wide range of S&P 500 options.

The forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio divides the current share price of the index by its estimated future earnings.

Third-party links are provided to you as a courtesy. We make no representation as to the completeness or accuracy of information provided on these websites. Information on such sites, including third-party links contained within, should not be construed as an endorsement or adoption by Commonwealth of any kind. You should consult with a financial advisor regarding your specific situation.

Member FINRASIPC

Please review our Terms of Use

Commonwealth Financial Network®