Yesterday, I did an interview with TheStreet where I stated that I thought the market had some more room to rise before the end of the year. Given some weak days and rising fears that the rally could be breaking down, I thought it would be worthwhile to outline exactly why I think that—and what I will be watching for to see if I need to change my mind.

When speaking with clients over the past couple of weeks, I have had several questions about whether we should be worried as the Fed begins to reduce its balance sheet. With the Fed starting to sell securities, the concern is that interest rates could spike and financial markets could become unsettled.

Given recent weakness, could the S&P 500 still hit 2,700 by the end of the year?

Last week was a very slow one for economic news, although the week ahead will be much busier. So, let’s jump right in.

I am really coming to grips with my 2018 outlook, and I find myself wrestling with the implications of slowing growth on the economy and, in particular, the markets. The fundamentals have been strong, with good earnings growth driving the markets up. The other major factor has been confidence, both business and consumer, which (despite everything) has been rising. Typically, rising confidence drives stock market multiples higher—and that is exactly what has happened this year. So, the great market results we’re seeing have been the result of a double whammy: improving fundamentals as confidence and valuations rise.

Market risks come in three flavors: recession risk, economic shock risk, and risks within the market itself. So, what do these risks look like for November? Let’s take a closer look at the numbers.

As we work our way through the effects of the hurricanes on the economic data, the news remains very positive. October’s results largely preserved or even improved on September’s strong data, with job growth rebounding and confidence at high levels for both business and consumers. Fed policy, despite the expected rate hikes ahead, remains stimulative.

It has been a busy couple of days in the news. So, while I don’t ordinarily quote Lenin, his statement that “there are decades where nothing happens; and there are weeks when decades happen” is just too applicable to ignore. The events in Saudi Arabia and, to a lesser extent, in Washington are potentially changing the range of reasonable future outcomes—to a degree that markets are not fully discounting.

Last week was a busy one on the data front, giving us a wide-ranging look at the economy. Overall, the news was good, with consumer and business confidence improving or holding steady, while the jobs report rebounded significantly. The big Federal Reserve news—the selection of Janet Yellen’s successor—was also well received.

Right now, I am in the process of writing my monthly market update. While reviewing the data, the markets, and so forth, something just hit me: things are actually really, really good! We don’t normally get this much positive news all at once or for such a long time. We are living in the sweet spot.