The Independent Market Observer

Brad McMillan, CFA®, CFP®

Brad McMillan, CFA®, CFP®, is managing principal, wealth management, and chief investment officer at Commonwealth. As CIO, Brad chairs the investment committee and is a spokesperson for Commonwealth’s investment divisions. Brad received his BA from Dartmouth College, an MS from MIT, and an MS from Boston College. He has worked as a real estate developer, consultant, and lender; as an investment analyst, manager, and consultant; and as a start-up executive. His professional qualifications include designated membership in the Appraisal Institute, the CFA Institute, and the CAIA Association. He also is a CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER™ practitioner. Brad speaks around the country on investment issues and writes for industry publications, as well as for this blog.
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Recent Posts

Market Thoughts for November 2017 [Video]

November 2, 2017

October was a terrific month for the markets. U.S., developed, and emerging markets were all up. Companies are making money, and stock markets are positive. Plus, despite three of the worst storms in U.S. history, consumer and business confidence grew. This is a very positive sign. On the corporate earnings front, however, there is some worrisome headline data. Still, profit growth continues to beat expectations.

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Why Does the Fed Matter?

November 1, 2017

Sitting in the chair that I do, I take quite a bit for granted, not least of which is that things I deal with every day—for example, the Fed—are important. Yet when you stop and look at it, if you are not in the middle of the financial news flow, it isn’t obvious (at least it wouldn't be to me) exactly why that is. Why is there so much coverage of Fed meetings and, at the moment, the selection of a new chair to run the Fed? Today, let’s take a step back and think about why the Fed matters to you and why you should care.

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Halfway Through Earnings: More Treats Than Tricks?

October 31, 2017

As of the end of last week, more than half (55 percent) of companies in the S&P 500 had reported earnings for the third quarter. So, it makes sense to see where we are and what that means for the markets. On the whole, the news is good. But it has to be understood in the context of the recent hurricanes, which—to no one’s surprise—have hammered earnings in the insurance sector. (All of the data here comes from the FactSet Earnings Insight analysis.)

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Monday Update: Surprisingly Good Data, Despite Hurricanes

October 30, 2017

Last week was a relatively slow one, but it still gave us a look at the economy as a whole. The data was surprisingly strong, especially in light of the hurricanes’ impact, and came in better than expected across the board. Despite some concerns about growth, this news was quite good and suggests some of those concerns may not play out.

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The State of the Market: Part 5

October 27, 2017

In part 4 of this series, we concluded that the map was separating from the territory, along with the reasons why that was so. Today, let’s take a look at what to do about it.

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The State of the Market: Part 4

October 25, 2017

As I mentioned yesterday in part 3, passive investing is a rule-based system and a fairly simple one. Put your money into an index, and buy all of the components at the current weight. This is the case regardless of whether you purchase a mutual fund, ETF, or some other vehicle. You simply buy the index, taking its weights as gospel.

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The State of the Market: Part 3

October 24, 2017

Last Friday, we talked about how artificial intelligence (AI) is, at heart, something simple: a set of rules and if-then statements. As such, AI can be very helpful in a simple environment, where relationships and rules remain constant, but it tends to stumble when those rules change. Waze, which is a great example of this, lives in a world of maps. It is very useful, but it fails when the reality doesn’t match up with the map. Any self-driving car will have to take closed roads, weather, and crazy drivers into account, which works well much of the time, but not always.

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Monday Update: Despite Hurricanes, Growth Remains Solid

October 23, 2017

Last week gave us a broad look at the economy, including industrial production and housing. While the business news was generally positive, housing was more mixed—suggesting a potential slowdown in the next couple of quarters. It is clear that growth continues and is likely to keep going for some time. Still, and despite the disruptions from the hurricanes, there are signs that we are in the later part of the economic cycle and will need to keep an eye out for slowing growth.

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The State of the Market: Part 2

October 20, 2017

As I mentioned in part 1 of The State of the Market, today I’d like to take a side trip into a different area: artificial intelligence (AI). One of the key themes we see pretty much everywhere these days is that computers, or robots, are taking over the world. This “age of automation,” as I will call it, is often seen as the rise of the machines (think the Terminator movies) and the associated demise of human jobs.

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The State of the Market: Part 1

October 19, 2017

After talking about where the bubble is and then Black Monday, there is something we must acknowledge: despite all the hand-wringing, the market is high and seems to be rising even further. Like the bumblebee— which, according to all sorts of sophisticated aerodynamic analysis, cannot fly—the market doesn’t know it can’t go higher and so it does.

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The information on this website is intended for informational/educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security or investment product. Please contact your financial professional for more information specific to your situation.

Certain sections of this commentary contain forward-looking statements that are based on our reasonable expectations, estimates, projections, and assumptions. Forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve certain risks and uncertainties, which are difficult to predict. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Diversification does not assure a profit or protect against loss in declining markets.

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