As we start moving further into May, I think it’s a good time to take a look back at April’s economic news, plus what to expect in the month ahead.

Market risks come in three flavors: recession risk, economic shock risk, and risks within the market itself. So, what do these risks look like for May? Let’s take a closer look at the numbers.

Last week was an extremely busy one for economic news, which gave us a look at all major sectors and concluded with the all-important employment report. Overall, while the economic statistics remain quite positive, there are signs of slowing. This week, the main focus will be on prices, plus we’ll get a look at consumer confidence.

April’s data continued to be solid overall. Job growth recovered and March’s weak report was revised upward significantly, easing one concern. Consumer confidence also bounced back a bit. More worrying is that business confidence moved further off the high, although this would be a change in trend rather than an immediate concern. Fed policy continues to be stimulative, which is helpful, despite the recent rate increase. Overall, the economic data indicates that growth continues, although it may have peaked.

A reader asked the other day, simply, whether I was worried about the debt. As I was considering a response, I realized it was going to be a long one and that I had not written about this issue for quite a while. So, here we are.

As we move away from the financial crisis and as policies normalize, it is a good time to take a look at what the removal of those policies might mean. After all, many of the actions taken in the aftermath of the crisis were explicitly designed to do certain things. If those actions were successful, then presumably their reversal would have the opposite effect.

April was a good month, as both U.S. and developed markets were up. This news was encouraging, indicating that the economy seems to be bouncing back after two down months. In fact, the fundamentals are quite strong, with company earnings surprising to the upside to a degree we have never seen before. Plus, sales beat expectations, which is a positive reflection of the markets and the economy.

Last week’s economic news started off with housing and ended with the gross domestic product (GDP) report. The week ahead will be a busy one, giving us a look at all major sectors and wrapping up with the most important report of the month: employment.

We closed yesterday’s post on the stock market and your portfolio with the proposition that future returns, historically, have been lower when the market started out expensive than when the market started out cheap. This would seem to be common sense, but there is considerable resistance to the idea. Let’s think it through by starting with a look at the actual numbers.

We closed yesterday’s post on market turbulence with the big picture: risks are rising, but they are still not necessarily immediate. Of course, this is important to remember. But it also implicitly assumes that, as investors, we are primarily concerned with that short-term risk. In fact, what we should be looking at is how our portfolios are likely to play out over years and decades, not the next couple of quarters. With that in mind, what can we discern from current conditions about the longer-term impact?