The Independent Market Observer

Monthly Market Risk Update: July 2018

July 12, 2018

Market risks come in three flavors: recession risk, economic shock risk, and risks within the market itself. So, what do these risks look like for July? Let’s take a closer look at the numbers.

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Monthly Market Risk Update: June 2018

June 8, 2018

Market risks come in three flavors: recession risk, economic shock risk, and risks within the market itself. So, what do these risks look like for June? Let’s take a closer look at the numbers.

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Monthly Market Risk Update: May 2018

May 8, 2018

Market risks come in three flavors: recession risk, economic shock risk, and risks within the market itself. So, what do these risks look like for May? Let’s take a closer look at the numbers.

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Monthly Market Risk Update: April 2018

April 11, 2018

Market risks come in three flavors: recession risk, economic shock risk, and risks within the market itself. So, what do these risks look like for April? Let’s take a closer look at the numbers.

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Monthly Market Risk Update: March 2018

March 13, 2018

This is another special edition of the market risk update, following a significant bounce from the February pullback. Overall, the conclusion of a green light last month was correct, as much of the damage proved to be temporary. But it is worth taking a look at what happened and why. Where special comments are needed, they will be in italics.

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Monthly Market Risk Update: February 2018

February 13, 2018

This is a “special edition” of the market risk update. With the recent 10-percent pullback in U.S. markets—something we have not seen in years—the idea of market risk is a concern for many. When we do this analysis, we have to be aware of this but also keep in mind that, over time, longer-term models are better predictors than short-term results (however worrying). As such, we will look at each of our indicators and try to determine how they relate to recent experience. These special sections will be in italics.

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Monthly Market Risk Update: January 2018

January 10, 2018

Market risks come in three flavors: recession risk, economic shock risk, and risks within the market itself. So, what do these risks look like for January? Let’s take a closer look at the numbers.

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Monthly Market Risk Update: December 2017

December 12, 2017

Market risks come in three flavors: recession risk, economic shock risk, and risks within the market itself. So, what do these risks look like for December? Let’s take a closer look at the numbers.

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Monthly Market Risk Update: November 2017

November 9, 2017

Market risks come in three flavors: recession risk, economic shock risk, and risks within the market itself. So, what do these risks look like for November? Let’s take a closer look at the numbers.

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Monthly Market Risk Update: October 2017

October 11, 2017

Market risks come in three flavors: recession risk, economic shock risk, and risks within the market itself. So, what do these risks look like for October? Let’s take a closer look at the numbers.

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The information on this website is intended for informational/educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security or investment product. Please contact your financial professional for more information specific to your situation.

Certain sections of this commentary contain forward-looking statements that are based on our reasonable expectations, estimates, projections, and assumptions. Forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve certain risks and uncertainties, which are difficult to predict. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Diversification does not assure a profit or protect against loss in declining markets.

The S&P 500 Index is a broad-based measurement of changes in stock market conditions based on the average performance of 500 widely held common stocks. All indices are unmanaged and investors cannot invest directly in an index.

The MSCI EAFE (Europe, Australia, Far East) Index is a free float‐adjusted market capitalization index that is designed to measure the equity market performance of developed markets, excluding the U.S. and Canada. The MSCI EAFE Index consists of 21 developed market country indices.

One basis point (bp) is equal to 1/100th of 1 percent, or 0.01 percent.

The VIX (CBOE Volatility Index) measures the market’s expectation of 30-day volatility across a wide range of S&P 500 options.

The forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio divides the current share price of the index by its estimated future earnings.

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